Quick overview

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UBS still views the correction as temporary and maintains its bullish target of $55/oz by mid-2026, despite silver’s retreat from its record highs of around $54.50/oz.

According to UBS, the recent decline in silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by momentum-driven investors rather than a change in the metal’s long-term outlook. The bank indicated that silver prices are likely to rise due to factors such as lower nominal and real interest rates, global debt concerns, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and expectations of a recovery in global growth by 2026.

UBS anticipates that the gold-to-silver ratio will narrow to approximately 76x, with a potential target of reaching 70x to support silver’s strength.

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the benchmark range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. Initially, this move supported silver and other precious metals; however, Chair Jerome Powell did not commit to further easing. As a result, the market’s expectations for another rate cut by December decreased from 91% to 63%, which has boosted bearish sentiment for non-yielding assets, increasing the value of the dollar and Treasury yields.

UBS notes that “this backdrop should continue to support strong investment demand,” predicting that ETF holdings will surpass their all-time high of 1,021 million ounces. The bank characterized the recent decline as “an opportunity to position for further upside,” projecting a silver price of $55 per ounce by the end of June 2026 based on its forecast of $4,200 per ounce for gold and its analysis of the gold-silver ratio.