Mexican Peso Slides After Local Inflation Data as Markets Reassess Rate Outlook

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slipped 0.01% to 100.17.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Tuesday, November 25, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.5133 pesos per dollar.
Local inflation data exceeded expectations, supporting the likelihood of a key rate cut by Banxico in December.
The peso has been trading within a narrow range, with key resistance around the 18.50–18.55 zone.
Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. economic data and communications from Banxico and President Trump.

The Mexican peso weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday after local inflation data came in slightly above expectations, though the figures still supported bets on a key rate cut by Banxico in December.

The exchange rate closed at 18.5133 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.4847 on Friday, according to official Bank of Mexico data. The move represents a modest 0.16% depreciation, or 2.86 centavos.

The dollar traded within a range of 18.5296 to 18.4150 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slipped 0.01% to 100.17.

USD/MXN

Inflation in Mexico for the first half of November rose more than expected. Headline inflation increased 0.47%, while core inflation — which excludes food and energy — edged up 0.04%, leaving expectations for rate cuts largely unchanged.

Meanwhile, traders continued assessing the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve policy. According to the FedWatch tool, which tracks interest-rate futures, markets assign a 78.9% probability to a 25 bp rate cut next month. Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller joined other officials signaling support for another cut in December. Last week, New York Fed President John Williams also hinted at easing.

The peso has been trading in a tight range between 18.41 and 18.53, with the 18.50–18.55 zone acting as key resistance, where the psychological level aligns with the 100-day moving average.

In the coming days, the exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound, with heightened sensitivity to upcoming U.S. economic data, Banxico communications, and any statements from President Trump.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.