Bitcoin Reclaims $90,000 as On-Chain Flows Flash “Buy” Signal
Bitcoin is holding above $90,000, a rise of more than 3% in the last 24 hours. Even while this current positive trend has pushed the crypto
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $90,000, reflecting a 3% increase in the last 24 hours but remains 31% below its all-time high of $126,210.
- The cryptocurrency is experiencing a consolidation phase after a significant peak, with recent volatility linked to macroeconomic factors like U.S. import taxes.
- Experts identify four key factors that could influence Bitcoin's recovery to six figures, including monetary policy uncertainty and upcoming economic data releases.
- Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to stablecoin activity, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment.
On Thursday, Bitcoin BTC/USD is holding above $90,000, a rise of more than 3% in the last 24 hours. Even while this current positive trend has pushed the cryptocurrency up, it is still about 29% behind its all-time high of $126,210 on October 6. Even if the price has dropped recently, experts say that four important things might help the world’s biggest cryptocurrency get back to six figures in the next few months.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Navigating Post-Peak Consolidation
Since late November, Bitcoin has had a hard time keeping its momentum over $92,000. In the last 30 days, it has dropped 22%. The current price movement shows that the market is in a consolidation period after reaching an all-time high in October. The asset momentarily fell below the psychologically key $90,000 level for six days in a row before rising back above it on Wednesday.
After President Trump said there will be 100% taxes on Chinese imports, the market became even more volatile. This caused a huge $19 billion liquidation in the crypto market. This event shows that Bitcoin is still quite sensitive to changes in macroeconomic policy, even though more institutions are using it.
Bitcoin is down about 31% from its all-time high, which many analysts think is a healthy correction zone. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF, which monitors inflation-protected assets, just started to rise again after testing support levels. This suggests that investors are expecting inflation to rise, which has traditionally been good for Bitcoin as a hedge.
Stablecoin Dynamics Reveal Market Psychology
Recent blockchain statistics from Glassnode show an interesting link between the price changes of Bitcoin and the activity of stablecoins. The company said that over the past two years, there has been a strong inverse relationship between the price of BTC and the flow of USDt to exchanges. When the market is doing well, USDT usually flows out of exchanges at a rate of $100 million to $200 million per day as investors take their profits. At Bitcoin’s peak in October, when it was close to $126,000, net outflows were more than $220 million on a 30-day moving average basis. This was a clear hint that people were taking profits.
The pattern has started to soften as flows become positive again. This could mean that the selling pressure is starting to run out of steam. Bitcoin and USDt are still the leading and third largest digital assets by market cap, with values of about $1.74 trillion and $184 billion, respectively.
Four Critical Catalysts for Bitcoin Price Recovery
There are a number of things that will affect how quickly Bitcoin can test the $112,000 mark again:
- Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Bond futures data shows that traders now think there is a 78% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 3.50% or higher until January 26, 2026. This is a big jump from 47% in late October. Lower rates usually help companies that are in debt and increase demand for consumer borrowing, but the government’s funding shutdown, which will last until November 12, has made it hard to know what to do. The November jobs report on December 16 and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index on December 26 are two important data releases coming up.
- Federal Reserve Leadership Transition: The term of Fed Chair Jerome Powell ends in May 2026. President Trump has said he would like to see a candidate who supports less stringent monetary policy. This possible change, together with new banking rules that will cut capital requirements for big banks by January 1, 2026, could make people feel more willing to take risks.
- MSCI Index Decision: MSCI said in October that it was talking to investors about perhaps leaving out companies that mainly focus on collecting Bitcoin and other digital assets. The final choice is due on January 15, 2025. Passive funds tied to Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) have around $9 billion in market exposure, thus this move is very important. Michael Saylor, the founder of the company, has made it clear that Strategy is not just a holding company; it is also a publicly traded company with a $500 million software business.
- Derivatives Market Sentiment: Bitcoin futures have been under constant pressure, with put options costing 10% more than similar call contracts. Because the $22.6 billion BTC options expiration on December 26 is so big, traders are probably waiting for this skew to move toward a neutral 5% or below before they feel safe again.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for End-2025
Tom Lee, the chair of BitMine and a well-known Bitcoin bull, has changed his mind about his earlier prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of the year. Lee said in a recent interview with CNBC that he thinks it’s “still very likely” that Bitcoin would trade above $100,000 before the end of the year. He also said that it might reach its all-time high again. This is a big step back from the goal he set for himself in early 2024.
Lee stressed that Bitcoin tends to make most of its gains in just 10 trading days each year. Bitcoin’s best 10 days in 2024 brought in a total of 52% return, while the other 355 days brought in an average of -15% return. This shows how important it is to stay invested during times of severe volatility.
Earlier this week, economist Timothy Peterson said that Bitcoin’s bottom may have already happened or may happen this week. This gives bulls some hope as they deal with the current uncertainties.
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