Quick overview

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Goldman Sachs injected some caution into the debate over copper’s prospects, saying its surge past $11,000 a ton will prove short-lived as there’s still more than enough metal to meet global demand. Aurelia Waltham and other bank analysts wrote in a note that “the majority of the recent increase in copper prices is based on expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals.”.

Copper prices have recently surged above $11,000, but this upward trend is unlikely to be sustainable. The metal hit a record high of $11,540 per ton on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday, driven by concerns about a potential global supply shortage as it is being rapidly shipped to the U.S. ahead of anticipated tariffs.  Mercuria Energy pointed out the possibility of “extreme” supply disruptions,  further fueling this trading activity.

Goldman Sachs indicated that higher regional premiums and tighter spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME) could help mitigate “critically low” inventories outside of the U.S. Despite this, the firm raised its copper forecast for the first half of next year and asserted that the U.S. tariff situation would support prices. They predicted that a copper shortage will not occur until 2029 and estimated that this year’s demand will fall approximately 500,000 tons short of supply.

They noted that while their smaller projected surplus of 160,000 tons for 2026 brings the market closer to balance, it suggests that a global copper shortage is unlikely in the near future. Analysts expect prices to be constrained between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026. However, past bold forecasts for copper prices have often missed the mark.

Recently, global demand for copper has slowed, even as the metal is essential for green technologies. Additionally, significant mine outages through 2026 have intensified supply pressures. In particular, activity in China has sharply declined in recent months. Goldman predicts that Chinese consumption will fall by nearly 8% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, with growth projected at 2.8% for the following year.