Barclays: Bitcoin Is Now a Mature Asset After U.S. Regulatory Shift
Analysts also highlighted that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional assets varies depending on market risk regimes.
Quick overview
- Barclays views the regulatory changes in 2025 as a pivotal moment for the maturation of cryptocurrencies, despite their high-risk profile.
- The U.S. landscape for cryptocurrencies has shifted from hostile to supportive, paving the way for significant developments in 2026.
- Recent regulatory actions, including the repeal of key obstacles and the establishment of a federal framework for stablecoins, signal a clearer path for digital assets.
- Barclays suggests that Bitcoin is evolving into a standalone asset class, with its correlation to traditional assets varying based on market volatility.
The British bank said that the regulatory changes introduced in 2025 marked a turning point for cryptocurrencies. Despite deeper institutional integration, it warned that the asset class still carries a high-risk profile.
For Barclays, the regulatory shift implemented by the United States in 2025 signals the beginning of a new phase in which regulation may act as a catalyst for the sector’s maturation rather than a threat to its development.
In just over 15 years, Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe proposal into an asset integrated into the global financial system. The launch of futures in 2017 and the approval of spot ETFs in 2024 paved the way for broader institutional adoption.
Recent developments have transformed the U.S. landscape from hostile to supportive, setting the stage for 2026. “The process of financialization has brought the market to a critical inflection point,” the British bank said, adding that next year could mark the moment of “regulatory reality,” as global frameworks move from theoretical discussions to active implementation.
White House shift
The U.S. government began the year with an executive order explicitly banning a central bank digital currency (CBDC), signaling a clear preference for private-sector innovation over a state-controlled “digital dollar.”
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) repealed accounting bulletin SAB 121, removing a key obstacle that had prevented large banks from offering digital asset custody. The regulator also dropped its high-profile lawsuits against Coinbase, Uniswap Labs, and Ripple.
In July, Congress passed the GENIUS Act, establishing the first federal framework for stablecoin issuers. The Department of Labor revised its guidance on 401(k) pension funds, while an executive order promoted access to crypto assets within these vehicles.
The process culminated in October, when the SEC and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced new coordinated regulatory agendas and a joint initiative dubbed “Project Crypto.”
A new asset class?
With the regulatory path now clearer, Barclays assessed Bitcoin’s potential evolution as a standalone asset class. It noted that the cryptocurrency meets several structural requirements, including market capitalization, liquidity, and access through regulated instruments such as ETFs and futures.
Analysts also highlighted that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional assets varies depending on market risk regimes.
During periods of low volatility, correlations with bonds, commodities, and gold were close to zero, while its correlation with equities stood at 0.26. In high-volatility phases, its link to risk assets strengthened, rising to 0.47 with equities and 0.22 with commodities and gold.
This pattern confirms that Bitcoin tends to move alongside equities and commodities during periods of market stress, suggesting it retains a predominantly “risk-on” profile.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save