Fidelity Sees Bitcoin Bull Cycle Ending at $65,000
Based on this four-year pattern, Fidelity expects 2026 to be a down year, with Bitcoin’s current support zone estimated in the $65,000.
Quick overview
- Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer predicts Bitcoin will follow its historical cycle, suggesting a potential correction is imminent.
- Despite a positive long-term outlook, Timmer estimates a support zone for Bitcoin between $65,000 and $75,000.
- The crypto market is currently experiencing a downturn, with Bitcoin trading at $87,856, down 2.4%.
- Timmer believes 2026 could be a transition year for Bitcoin, aligning with historical patterns of market cycles.
Fidelity’s director of research, Jurrien Timmer, said the leading cryptocurrency is likely to follow its historical cycle.
The crypto market is going through a period of heightened uncertainty, as analysts debate whether Bitcoin (BTC) will enter a bullish or bearish phase in 2026. While some forecasts point to $90,000 as a sign of stability, others—including Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director of Research at Fidelity—believe a significant correction is approaching.
Speaking from one of the world’s largest asset managers, Timmer said Bitcoin is heading toward a $65,000 floor, despite maintaining a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. His view is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, driven by halving events. Within this framework, the all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6, would have marked the peak of the cycle—both in price and timing.
Based on this four-year pattern, Fidelity expects 2026 to be a down year, with Bitcoin’s current support zone estimated in the $65,000–$75,000 range.
Timmer’s post on X and the outlook for Bitcoin
“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, I’m concerned that Bitcoin may have completed another halving phase of its four-year cycle, both in price and in time,” Timmer wrote in a post on X.
In the same message, he added: “If we visually align all bull markets, we can see that the October peak of around $125,000, after roughly 145 months of gains, fits the expected pattern quite well. Bitcoin winters typically last about a year, so I suspect that 2026 could be a transition or pause year for Bitcoin.”
Market reaction
In terms of price action, the crypto market is trading lower. Bitcoin is down 2.4% at $87,856, according to Binance. Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure, falling 3% to $2,959.
Altcoins are broadly weaker as well: BNB is down 2.3%, Ripple (XRP) is off 2.6%, and Solana (SOL) is down 3.3%.
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