Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Critical Year-End Options Expiry Amid Mixed Market Signals
Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching a pivotal $36.3 billion options expiry on Friday, with bearish positioning dominating as BTC hovers
Quick overview
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a significant $36.3 billion options expiry, with bearish sentiment prevailing as BTC hovers around $87,500 and ETH struggles below $3,000.
- Institutional accumulation of Ethereum is increasing, with Trend Research purchasing a substantial amount, while major layer-2 networks are achieving new milestones despite market weakness.
- Options markets indicate a pessimistic outlook, particularly for Bitcoin, as most call options are expected to expire worthless unless BTC can rise above $94,000.
- Ethereum's upcoming $6 billion options expiry will be crucial, as it needs to break above $3,100 to shift the current bearish sentiment and validate institutional confidence.
Bitcoin BTC/USD and Ethereum ETH/USD are approaching a pivotal $36.3 billion options expiry on Friday, with bearish positioning dominating as BTC hovers near $87,500 and ETH struggles below $3,000. Meanwhile, institutional players like Trend Research are aggressively accumulating Ethereum, and Arbitrum’s developer has doubled down on its native token despite broader market weakness.
Crypto Market Developments
The bitcoin market is ending 2025 with a cautious consolidation. Institutional accumulation is going up, while bearish derivatives positioning is going down. Major layer-2 networks are hitting new milestones, even as the attitude behind governance tokens is getting weaker. At the same time, several big investors say that Bitcoin’s price action may actually lower the danger of losing money as we head into the new year.
The difference between spot purchasing and options market pessimism shows how uneasy traders are right now as they deal with a time of low volatility. Friday’s settlement prices will probably set the tone for the first few weeks of 2026, since more than $36 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are about to expire.
Bitcoin Holds Above $87,000
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at about $87,500 right now. It will expire on Friday at 8:00 am UTC, which is a huge $30.3 billion options expiration. The vast bulk of the $21.7 billion in call options are likely to expire worthless. Less than 6% of Deribit’s call bets are at strike prices of $92,000 or lower. Bulls had set their sights high for year-end values between $100,000 and $125,000, but in November, Bitcoin dropped below the important $100,000 psychological mark and stayed there for five weeks, hovering around $89,000.
Options markets are leaning toward the gloomy side, and put options have an edge as long as BTC stays below $94,000. However, some well-known people see reasons to be hopeful. Anthony Pompliano told CNBC that Bitcoin’s lack of a “blowoff top” surge might stop the 70–80% drops that usually happen after ecstatic peaks. He said, “We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4, but we also haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people usually expect.” He also said that Bitcoin has still made impressive gains of 100% over two years and nearly 300% over three years. Traders have been buying more call options in the $90,000 to $120,000 range over the past week in response to possible US stimulus measures. This is especially true after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disclosed plans for a $2,000 tariff rebate for people who aren’t affluent in early 2026.
Ethereum Waits Above $2,900 Ahead of $6B Options Expiry
Ethereum (ETH) is trading close to $2,940 and is about to face a big test with a $6 billion options expiry on Friday. The second-largest cryptocurrency hasn’t been able to keep prices over $3,400 for 40 days. Most of the $4.1 billion in call options are between $3,500 and $5,000, which now seem out of reach. Bears still have a big advantage unless ETH can break above $3,100. However, if Ether trades above $2,950 at settlement, more than 60% of the $1.9 billion in put options would be worthless.
But underneath the negative derivatives positioning, a really interesting accumulation tale is developing. On Wednesday, Trend Research, a secondary investment firm linked to LD Capital founder Jack Yi, bought 46,379 ETH, boosting its total holdings to almost 580,000 ETH. This makes it one of the top investors of Ethereum. SharpLink Gaming and BitMine Immersion Technologies are the only two publicly traded companies that say they have more ETH. Yi said in a message that was translated by a machine that his company is getting ready to spend another $1 billion to buy more Ether and told traders not to short the asset.
This aggressive accumulation by institutions is very different from the caution shown in options markets, where demand for bearish techniques like “bear diagonal put spreads” and “bear put spreads” has grown since several failed attempts to go back to $3,400. On Friday, settlement prices will show whether Ether can break away from the $2,775 lows of December. This will test the difference between Trend Research’s certainty and what most people think.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save