Ethereum Faces Critical $6 Billion Options Expiry as Analysts Debate 2026 Price Trajectory
Ethereum is holding above $2,900 right now because the cryptocurrency market is getting ready for a huge derivatives event that might set
Quick overview
- Ethereum is currently above $2,900 as the market prepares for a significant derivatives event with $6 billion in options expiring soon.
- There are more call options than put options, but many could become worthless if ETH fails to break above $3,100, the 'max pain' point.
- Analysts predict a consolidation range for ETH between $2,700 and $3,100 until the end of the year, with potential volatility from the options expiration.
- Looking ahead to 2026, experts express a bearish outlook for Ethereum, suggesting limited growth potential and possible price drops to between $1,800 and $2,000.
Ethereum ETH/USD is holding above $2,900 right now because the cryptocurrency market is getting ready for a huge derivatives event that might set the course for ETH through 2026. About $6 billion in options contracts will expire this Friday, December 26. Traders are keeping a careful eye on important price levels that might cause big swings in either way.
ETH/USD Technical Setup Points to Fragile Market Structure
Laevitas, a derivatives platform, says that there are more than 2.2 times as many call options as put options in the contracts that are about to expire. But this optimistic stance might not be right, since a lot of these calls could end up being worthless if Ethereum doesn’t break convincingly above $3,100, which analysts have called “max pain” because it’s the point where the most options would lose value.
After a severe drop in November, the present market structure looks weak, which goes against prior hopes for a robust rally at the end of the year. Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, has about $3.8 billion of the total options. An extra $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options will also expire on Friday, which might make the market more volatile.
Crypto expert Ted Pillows calls the current price range a “no-trading zone,” which means that big changes might only happen if ETH solidly breaks through $3,000 or hits support between $2,700 and $2,800 again. This little range shows how uncertain the market is as traders wait for Friday’s expiration.
Bearish Outlook Dominates Analyst Sentiment for 2026
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known crypto expert, has said that Ethereum may not be able to hit new highs in 2026, even after the immediate options expiration. Cowen said on the Bankless podcast that Bitcoin’s BTC/USD current weakness makes it hard for Ethereum to rise in value over time. He said that even if ETH gets back to its all-time high of $4,878, which it last hit in August, it could just be a “bull trap” that leads to a quick drop back to $2,000.
Cowen doesn’t think much of the altcoin market as a whole. He only thinks Ethereum has a chance of reaching all-time highs again this cycle. To get to the August top from the present level of about $2,900, the price would have to rise by 40%. This is a big move that seems less and less feasible given the current state of the market.
This gloomy opinion is in line with what Fundstrat Global Advisors said, which was that investors should be careful since the price might drop to between $1,800 and $2,000 in 2026. Also, veteran trader Peter Brandt’s projection that Bitcoin might drop to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026 adds to worries that the cryptocurrency market would stay poor for a long time.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Consolidation Before Decisive Move
Ethereum looks like it will stay between $2,700 and $3,100 till the end of the year because of the way the market is set up right now and the different opinions of analysts. The Friday options expiration will be a key event. If the price breaks over $3,100, it might start a short-term rebound toward $3,300-$3,500 as bears cover their holdings.
But if it doesn’t stay above $2,900, it could speed up the downward trend into the $2,700-$2,800 support zone that analysts have found. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall pessimistic mood suggests that there isn’t much room for growth. Without a major stimulus, the trading range between $2,000 and $3,500 seems most likely.
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