China Forecasts 5.9% Industrial Growth in 2025
According to information released on Friday by state broadcaster CCTV, the projected pace would remain below the nearly 6% growth.
Quick overview
- China expects a 5.9% increase in industrial output for 2025, a slight rise from last year's 5.8%.
- Recent data indicates a slowdown in industrial production, with November's growth at only 4.8%, the weakest since August 2024.
- Analysts are urging the government to enhance support for domestic demand amid concerns over the property sector downturn.
- Policymakers plan to introduce new fiscal measures next year to address supply-demand imbalances and stimulate consumption.
The Asian giant expects a modest increase in industrial output compared with last year. However, the slowdown seen in recent data has raised concerns among analysts.
China’s government, through its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said it expects output from large industrial companies to grow 5.9% in 2025 compared with 2024. If confirmed, this would represent only a marginal acceleration from last year’s 5.8% growth.
According to information released on Friday by state broadcaster CCTV, the projected pace would remain below the nearly 6% growth recorded in the first eleven months of 2025, based on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
China projects industrial output growth
The latest data point to signs of slowing momentum. In November, industrial production—covering companies with annual revenues above 20 million yuan (about $2.85 million)—rose 4.8% year-on-year, marking the weakest monthly increase since August 2024.
This cooling in activity has renewed concerns among analysts, who are calling for a stronger role for the state to support domestic demand and cushion the impact of the prolonged downturn in the property sector. They also warn about the need to reduce China’s structural dependence on exports.
Against this backdrop, economic policymakers have acknowledged imbalances between supply and demand and indicated that new fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and reviving investment will be rolled out next year.
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