Bitcoin Faces 21% Odds on $150K Target as Traders Turn Cautious
Prediction Market traders are showing a more cautious attitude toward Bitcoin's short-term upside, even as they remain very positive...
Quick overview
- Prediction Market traders are cautious about Bitcoin's short-term price movements, assigning only a 21% chance of reaching $150,000 within the next year.
- Despite short-term skepticism, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, with some predicting prices could reach as high as $250,000 by 2026.
- The fading reliability of the traditional four-year market cycle has led traders to focus more on macroeconomic factors rather than historical patterns.
- Upcoming regulatory clarity and potential shifts in monetary policy are expected to attract institutional interest and could bridge the gap between trader caution and analyst optimism.
Prediction Market traders are showing a more cautious attitude toward Bitcoin’s short-term upside, even as they remain very positive about its long-term prospects. A look at Polymarket – a decentralized betting platform where people can get a sense of market expectations – suggests that traders currently aren’t even giving much of a chance (only a 21%) that Bitcoin will hit a price of $150,000 within the next 12 months.
This data highlights a clear difference between how people in the market feel and what some experts predict. While some investment firms say there will be a delayed bull run in 2026, traders aren’t willing to buy into a bigger rally right now, not after prices ended 2025 pretty quietly.
Polymarkets’ most popular ‘What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?’ contract kind of gives you a idea of what people are thinking. The most likely outcome is actually pretty conservative, suggesting that people are more interested in small, steady gains rather than a big breakout rally.
Here is a snapshot of what the current betting odds look like:
- 80% chance that Bitcoin makes it to $100,000
- a 45% chance it hits $120,000
- 35% that it gets to $130,000
- 28% that it hits $140,000
- a 21% chance that it actually makes it to $150,000
What these figures show is that, at the moment, people are pretty skeptical that Bitcoin will make a big price jump anytime soon – despite lots of predictions over the years based on things like supply cycles and institutions becoming more involved.
Four-Year Cycle Fades as Old Models Lose Power
One reason people are cautious is uncertainty about the old four-year market cycle you used to be able to rely on. Historically, prices have always risen right after a halving event, creating a predictable rhythm that traders and analysts follow. That framework isn’t as reliable as it used to be now that prices ended 2025 in the red.
Since that cycle isn’t holding up as well as it used to, people are starting to have to think about things in a new way. Rather than relying on old patterns, markets are now influenced by big-picture factors such as monetary policy, the amount of money circulating, and the rules governing this space.
This shift has opened up a whole new set of possibilities:
- Making people a lot more sensitive to what interest rates are doing
- causing it to trade a lot more closely with other risk assets
- Making people a lot more focused on what the big players are saying and doing, rather than trying to predict the next cycle
For those just getting into this space, this is a pretty big transition – it means the old narrative-driven rallies are less and less the way the market works, and we are moving into a bigger picture, macro-driven market.
Policy Shifts and Forecasts Keep Long-Term Bulls Engaged
Despite all the caution we’re seeing in the short term, analysts remain positive about Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook. One of the main drivers is the expectation that the next Federal Reserve chair will be more accommodative, which has already pushed gold and silver to new highs. Plus, two big US bills are working their way through Congress – the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act – which could give a lot more clarity on stablecoins and market oversight. That kind of regulatory certainty could attract even more major institutional players.
Several major firms have been publishing some pretty aggressive forecasts:
- Standard Chartered is calling for $150,000 in 2026
- Bernstein is seeing similar upside and is pointing to ETF inflows as the reason
- strategy analysts are saying that supply dynamics are more and more constrained
- and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is actually calling for a potential range of $200,000–$250,000
This shows that Polymarkets’ subdued probabilities reflect caution in the short term rather than a rejection of Bitcoin’s long-term potential. As things become clearer on the policy and monetary fronts, we can see the gap between trader skepticism and analyst optimism close quickly.
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