Quick overview

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Precious metal investors anticipate that gold will achieve a repeat in 2026, following one of the most spectacular rallies in the history of the modern market

However, some leading money managers continue to wager on additional gains, claiming that the same factors that drove bullion to a record are still at work. In 2025, gold saw a 65% increase, its best performance in almost 50 years, as institutional and retail investors joined central banks.

Bullion even surged through an inflation-adjusted high that had held since 1980 in a year when nearly all of the factors that supported the precious metal collided, including declining interest rates and geopolitical unrest.

Additionally, investors cited declining trust in major developed-market currencies as a major factor supporting bullion, citing attacks on central bank independence and growing sovereign debt.

Growing public debt in developed nations fueled political unrest throughout the past year, from the US congressional standoff and France’s paralysis to the scrutiny of Japan’s record budget under new leadership.

According to Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer and Strategist, Mike Wilson, gold is “basically an anti-fiat currency play now more than anything else.” As the so-called debasement trade gained traction in the latter months of 2025 and investors like Ray Dalio and Ken Griffin cited gold’s increase as a warning sign, that viewpoint gained momentum. As a hedge against inflation, Wilson suggests putting 20% of one’s portfolio into real assets, such as gold, and switching from the conventional 60/40 stock and bond mix to a 60/20/20 split. “The debasement story has gone mainstream,” he said.

According to Massimiliano Castelli, head of UBS Asset Management’s global sovereign markets strategy, pension and insurance funds showed growing interest in gold through 2025, with some that had never held the asset before taking positions of about 5% of their strategic asset allocation. Strong returns and gold’s ability to protect against losses in other areas of their portfolio drew them in, he continued. “Obviously, we don’t see the same upside potential as last year, when gold was essentially the best asset class of all,” Castelli remarked. However, we remain optimistic about gold.