WTI Near $64: Oil Bulls Test a $65 Ceiling as Supply Fears Build Again
WTI crude oil is trading near $64.40 per barrel, rising for the third day in a row and reaching its highest level since late September...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil is trading near $64.40 per barrel, marking its highest level since late September amid rising concerns over supply issues.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising worries about potential disruptions to oil shipments, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The US dollar's decline to a four-year low is making dollar-priced commodities like oil more attractive, contributing to upward price pressure.
- Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for WTI, with key support at $63.00 and resistance levels to watch at $64.80–$65.20.
WTI crude oil is trading near $64.40 per barrel, rising for the third day in a row and reaching its highest level since late September. This increase shows that traders are factoring in more risk as they consider possible supply issues and tighter short-term conditions.
Worries about possible disruptions to oil shipments from the Middle East have come up again, reminding markets that this region supplies about one-third of the world’s oil. Any trouble in key shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, could have a big impact on both oil and LNG markets.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has dropped to its lowest level in four years, making dollar-priced commodities like oil more attractive. This weaker dollar has added to the upward pressure on oil prices, even though other risk assets are showing mixed results.
Geopolitical Risk Adds a Fresh Oil Premium
Even though diplomacy is ongoing, the market is already preparing for possible long-term uncertainty. Energy traders often respond quickly to these situations, especially when they involve important routes that carry much of the world’s oil.
Instead of waiting for actual supply problems, futures markets have added a precautionary premium, moving prices back toward higher resistance levels. This has helped limit downward pressure, even during times when prices pause or pull back during the day.
WTI Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend the $63 Floor
Looking at the charts, WTI still shows a positive setup. On the 4-hour chart, prices keep making higher highs and higher lows, holding onto the short-term uptrend that started after bouncing from the $59 to $60 range.
Breaking above $63.00 was an important move. Now, that price acts as the first support level, backed up by a rising trendline and short-term demand. WTI is also trading above the 50- and 100-period moving averages, both of which are moving higher and show the trend is strong.
Momentum indicators also point to a bullish outlook, but with some caution:
- The RSI is in the low to mid 70s, showing strong momentum but getting close to overbought levels.
- This favors consolidation or shallow pullbacks, rather than an immediate reversal.
A sustained break above $64.80–$65.20 would open the door toward $66.80, a prior supply zone from earlier in the year. Failure to clear that area could keep prices rotating between $63.00 and $65.00 in the near term.
Key Levels and Trade Setup to Watch
- Support: $63.00, then $62.00
- Resistance: $64.80–$65.20, then $66.80
Trade idea: Consider buying on dips near $63.00, targeting $65.20, with a stop below $62.00.
As long as WTI stays above key support and the dollar stays weak, prices are more likely to keep rising, even if gains are gradual instead of sudden.
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