Oil Price News: WTI and Brent Rise as Iran Tensions Eclipse Massive US Inventory Build
Crude oil prices are moving up today, with WTI reaching $64.50 and Brent close to $69.35. The market is caught between concerns...
Quick overview
- Crude oil prices are rising, with WTI at $64.50 and Brent near $69.35, driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
- The US has imposed new sanctions on companies linked to Iran, raising concerns about supply disruptions in the oil market.
- The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant increase in crude inventories, which may limit further price gains.
- Looking ahead, upcoming OPEC and IEA reports will provide insights into the sustainability of the current price rally amid an oversupplied market.
Crude oil prices are moving up today, with WTI reaching $64.50 and Brent close to $69.35. The market is caught between concerns about a possible surplus and increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Geopolitical Heat: Carriers and Tankers in Focus
The primary driver behind today’s 0.9% gain is the escalating tension between Washington and Tehran. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts in Oman, President Donald Trump signaled on Tuesday that he is considering deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.
- Sanctions Surge: Just hours after the latest nuclear talks ended, the US State Department announced new sanctions on 15 companies and 14 ships connected to Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet.”
- Strait of Hormuz Risk: A US advisory has warned commercial ships to stay out of Iranian waters, adding new risk to the market. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil.
- Diplomatic Fragility: Iran called the talks a “good start,” but the US is still applying its “maximum pressure” strategy to limit Iran’s oil income. This keeps worries about supply disruptions in play.
The Inventory Shock: API Reports +13.4M Barrel Build
Limiting further price gains, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large increase in crude inventories of 13.4 million barrels for the week ending February 6.
If the official EIA data later today confirms it, this would be the biggest weekly increase since late 2023. Part of this rise is a rebound after Winter Storm Fern led to an 11.1 million barrel drop and disrupted production in the Permian Basin in late January.
Structural Bearishness: The 2026 Surplus Warning
Although recent news is supporting prices for now, the IEA’s February report gives a more cautious outlook for the year. The agency now predicts a surplus of almost 4 million barrels per day in 2026, which is about 4% of global demand.
| Driver | 2026 Forecast | Market Impact |
| Global Demand | +930,000 bpd | Lower than previous years; hit by economic “stalls.” |
| Supply Growth | +2.5 million bpd | Driven by US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. |
| OPEC+ Policy | Paused hikes | Production freeze extended through March to avoid a glut. |
| Inventory Buffer | 433 million bbl+ | Bloated balances provide a cushion against price spikes. |
Technical Analysis: WTI Squeeze Nears Breakout
On the 2-hour chart, WTI at $64.34 is trading within a narrowing range. Prices are moving between a downward trendline from January highs and support at $63.00. If WTI rises above $65.51, it could trigger a short-covering rally up to $67.00. If WTI cannot break above $64.80 and the EIA report is negative, prices may fall back toward the 100-period moving average at $62.55.
Indian refiners are said to be shifting from Russian oil to Middle Eastern and West African types to help secure a trade deal with the US. This move is giving a local boost to mainstream oil prices.
Looking Ahead
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report comes out later today, and the IEA’s full report will follow tomorrow. These updates will help show whether the current price rally can last in an oversupplied market.
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