Silver Price Forecast: Will XAG/USD Hold the $75 Support or Slide Further?
Silver is experiencing intense volatility. Early in 2026, the price surged past $100 per ounce and reached a record $121, but the market...
Quick overview
- Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, surging past $100 per ounce before facing a sharp correction.
- As of mid-February 2026, silver is trading between $77.40 and $78.06, with a structural deficit projected at 67 million ounces for the year.
- Industrial demand is being tempered by high prices, but new demand from AI and electronics is helping to balance the market.
- The outlook remains bearish to neutral unless silver can reclaim the crucial resistance level of $79.42.
Silver is experiencing intense volatility. Early in 2026, the price surged past $100 per ounce and reached a record $121, but the market has since faced a sharp correction.
By mid-February, silver is trying to find stable ground as it faces both weaker demand at high prices and an ongoing supply shortage.
Market Snapshot: A Volatile Recovery
After a mid-week flash crash where prices dropped more than 10% in one day, silver has started to recover slightly.
- Spot silver (XAG/USD) is now trading between $77.40 and $78.06, about 3% higher than its recent lows.
- March 2026 COMEX silver futures are trading between $78.00 and $78.30, showing that many leveraged positions have been cleared out.
Fundamental Drivers: Deficits vs. High-Price Resistance
In 2026, silver prices are being shaped by two opposing factors that are making traders cautious.
1. The Sixth Consecutive Annual Deficit
The Silver Institute projects a structural deficit of 67 million ounces for 2026. Even though supply may hit a ten-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, it still falls short of meeting demand.
This ongoing shortfall, which has totaled over 800 million ounces since 2021, helps set a long-term price floor.
2. “Thrifting” and Industrial Headwinds
With prices above $80, industrial buyers are beginning to resist. The solar industry is using less silver per panel or looking for cheaper alternatives.
[[XAG/USD-graph]]
However, new demand from AI data centers and high-performance electronics, where silver’s conductivity is crucial, is helping to balance this trend.
3. The Fed and Inflation Pivot
Lower US inflation numbers, with January’s CPI at 2.4%, have renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in mid-2026.
This has weakened the US Dollar and Treasury yields, typically a massive tailwind for the non-yielding white metal.
Technical Analysis: Resistance Caps the Rebound
Despite the relief rally, silver’s short-term technical posture remains fragile.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level Type | Price Point | Market Sentiment |
| Crucial Resistance | $79.42 | The “Pivot Point.” Silver must reclaim this to end the bearish trend. |
| Bullish Target | $85.00 – $86.30 | A break above $80 opens the door to this major EMA cluster. |
| Immediate Support | $74.11 | Last week’s low; if this breaks, the correction deepens. |
| Structural Floor | $68.10 – $71.00 | The 50-day EMA and the long-term structural demand corridor. |
The Verdict: Weekly Bias
For the week of February 16, 2026, the outlook is bearish to neutral if prices stay below $79.42.
Although the supply deficit supports prices in the long run, the short-term chart shows a pattern of lower highs.
Bulls need to push and close above $79.42 to invalidate the current downward pressure. Until then, any rallies are likely to be viewed as “sell-into” opportunities by institutional bears.
Analyst Insight: “Silver is currently a high-beta play on gold. While gold has found firm footing at $5,000, silver is still searching for its new equilibrium. Watch the $74 support closely; a breach there could trigger a move toward the high $60s.”
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save