Gold Reclaims $5,000! Will XAU/USD Blast to $6,000 or Is a Correction Looming?
Gold is back in the spotlight. After a volatile start to February, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading between $4,993 and $5,017, moving back...
Quick overview
- Gold is currently trading between $4,993 and $5,017, recovering above the key $5,000 level after a volatile start to February.
- Major financial institutions have raised their gold price targets for 2026, with predictions reaching as high as $6,300.
- Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are driving demand for gold, expected to purchase between 800 and 1,100 tonnes in 2026.
- The gold market is now viewed as structural rather than cyclical, with sovereign wealth funds treating it as a primary reserve asset.
Gold is back in the spotlight. After a volatile start to February, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading between $4,993 and $5,017, moving back above the key $5,000 level.
Some short-term traders called the recent dip a “dead cat bounce,” but buyers have pushed back strongly. Factors like diversification from oil-rich investors, central bank buying, and concerns about U.S. economic data are supporting gold’s continued strength in portfolios.
The $5,000 Tug-of-War: What Happened Today?
Today, gold’s price showed typical intraday movement. It opened with a rise toward $5,013, supported by demand from India and China after the Lunar New Year. The rally slowed as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) strengthened, bringing gold back to $4,980 mid-session.
Even with this pullback, the overall trend for 2026 is still very positive. Gold has risen 70% over the past year and reached a record high of over $5,600 in January.
The “New Normal”: Why $6,000 Is Now a Serious Target
Major financial institutions are now openly raising their gold price targets. Several banks have updated their 2026 forecasts:
- Goldman Sachs: Raised its year-end forecast to $5,400, citing “structural shifts” in reserve management.
- P. Morgan: Predicts an average of $5,055 by Q4 2026, with a “bull case” scenario reaching $6,300.
- ANZ Bank: Upgraded its target to $5,800 for Q2 2026, emphasizing that the rally is “not yet mature.”
- Standard Chartered: Projects record highs, with an average price of $4,488 (already surpassed) and a Q4 peak of $4,750 (looking conservative in the current climate).
Three Key Drivers of the 2026 Bull Market
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Central Bank “De-Dollarization”
Central banks are driving this rally with strong demand. Emerging markets, especially China and India, are expected to buy between 800 and 1,100 tonnes in 2026. This is about 26% of global annual mine output, creating a strong base of demand that reduces the risk of major price drops.
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The “Fear & Greed” Hedge
With U.S. 10-year yields at 4.06% and the Federal Reserve indicating that inflation may stay high, gold is serving as a dual hedge. It helps protect against the loss of purchasing power and offers safety for those concerned about volatility in the tech and AI sectors.
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Supply Inelasticity
Global gold production is not keeping up with demand. Recycling has increased by 3%, but new mining output is flat. When institutional investors buy an extra 100 tonnes, it is estimated to raise the gold price by 1.7 to 2 percent.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Buy or Wait?
For experienced traders, the 4-hour chart shows a period of healthy consolidation.
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Verdict |
| $4,950 (200-period EMA) | $5,046 (Feb 13 High) | Bullish |
| $4,900 (Rising Trendline) | $5,120 (Immediate Goal) | Neutral/Wait |
| $4,855 (Deep Correction) | $5,288 (Mid-Year Target) | Buy the Dip |
Market Strategy: Short-term traders should monitor the $5,020 level. If gold closes above this price, it could quickly move to $5,120. Long-term investors see the $4,900 to $4,950 range as a buying opportunity for the next move toward $6,000.
The Verdict: Gold’s New Role for Sovereign Investors
We are no longer in a cyclical gold market; we are in a structural one.The gold market is now seen as structural, not just cyclical. As sovereign wealth funds and central banks treat gold as a main reserve asset, it is acting more like a currency without debt than just a commodity.
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