Quick overview

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Investors welcomed signs of a potential ceasefire, hoping for progress that could help restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Major Wall Street indexes closed higher on Wednesday, while oil prices declined again, as the administration of Donald Trump stepped up efforts to end the conflict with Iran—despite Tehran’s rejection of a ceasefire.

According to The New York Times, Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war. Israeli media reported that the proposal would be discussed during a potential ceasefire. However, Tehran denied any negotiations, and Iran and Israel continued exchanging airstrikes on Wednesday.

Markets remained volatile throughout the week, swinging between gains and losses amid conflicting headlines around the conflict.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 46,428.57, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,594.90, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% to 21,929.83.

Brent crude prices fell 2.3% to $97.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 1.5% to $91.29.

In precious metals, gold rose 2.3% to $4,535.50 per ounce, and silver gained 2.7% to $71.44. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note dropped 1.25% to 4.337%.

Focus shifts to a potential ceasefire

Wall Street had closed lower in the previous session as investors assessed the likelihood of a halt in hostilities between U.S. and Israeli forces and Iran. Fighting continued, while the United States deployed additional military units to the Middle East. Reports also suggested that some Gulf allies were urging Trump to continue the campaign.

At the same time, Trump maintained that negotiations with Iran were ongoing, despite repeated denials from Tehran—adding to market uncertainty. Iranian officials accused the president of using the prospect of peace talks to calm financial market volatility.

Sentiment improved notably in extended trading after Israeli media reported that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner were working on a mechanism to secure a ceasefire and enable negotiations around a 15-point plan. Details were later reported by Axios and The New York Times.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is demanding strict conditions for any ceasefire talks, including the closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf and the imposition of fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Stagflation risks emerge

Traders are increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of a prolonged conflict—a sentiment reinforced by preliminary U.S. business activity data for March.

The S&P Global PMI fell to its lowest level in 11 months, signaling mounting pressure on overall growth amid rising prices linked to an energy shock stemming from the war.

Eurozone PMI readings also pointed to “warning signs of stagflation,” referring to a combination of persistent inflation and stagnating economic growth.