EUR/USD Is Showing Sustained Weakness: A Look At This Week’s GAP

As my colleague Skerdian covered earlier in the U.S. session brief, the elections in Germany brought no surprises as Angela Merkel held onto the reigns for another term. The euro did not like this development one bit, opening Sunday’s trade gap down.

Over the past few months, I have talked about trading gaps in price action according to Stiedlmeyer's market profile philosophy. It can be tough to get in on a gap trade, but the scenarios are profitable.

Let’s set up today’s EUR/USD gap and how to play it.

Technicals

Today’s EUR/USD open at 1.1896 saw a precipitous drop in pricing from Friday’s close of 1.1946.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart

This market is firmly under the control of fundamental traders taking an intermediate-term bearish view facing the euro. As this week’s trade unfolds, the technical roadmap is fairly straightforward:

• While not technically a true “gap,” the area between 1.1900 and 1.1936 has seen limited participation over the last two sessions.

• Daily SMA at 1.1947

• Bollinger MP at 1.1904

• Key support level at 1.1826, 62% retracement on the weekly time frame.

Overview: This market remains very fluid. As of this writing, price is below Last week’s low of 1.1861 and trending lower. As this market develops on a weekly timeframe, a regression back towards our thin gap area of 1.1900 to 1.1936 is likely.

Bottom Line: For now, this market is in trend mode down. However, I will be watching for signs of fatigue as we near the 62% Fibonacci level. With a bit of luck, a defined setup will be coming our way in the near future.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Shain Vernier

US Analyst

Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.

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