Daily 62% Retracement In View For The EUR/USD

It has been a whipsaw forex session for the EUR/USD featuring heavy two-way action near the 1.1825 quarter-handle. And, it appears as though this pair may snap its four session losing streak. As we head into the late-day hours, the formation of a daily Doji candlestick is a possibility.

On the economic news front, today has brought the weekly U.S. jobs numbers. With Non-Farm Payrolls on deck for tomorrow, this collection of stats is thought provoking:

Event                                                      Actual                         Projected                Previous

Challenger Job Cuts (July)                  18.942K                             NA                        20.476K

Continuing Jobless Claims                   2,930K                            3,260K                    3,296K

Initial Jobless Claims                                385K                              384K                       399K

Trade Balance (June)                            -75.70B                           -74.10B                  -71.00B

With the enhanced unemployment benefits set to expire next month, the U.S. jobs numbers are improving. Both Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are down week-over-week, a solid sign with NFP coming out tomorrow. On the other hand, the U.S. Trade Balance for June fell by 4.5 billion from May.

On Friday, July’s NFP numbers will be released to the public. Analysts are expecting a 20,000 gain from June and a final tally of 870,000. No matter what happens with NFP, be ready for short-term volatility to hit the EUR/USD.

Key Fibonacci Support Level In View For The EUR/USD

As we head toward the Friday NFP report, a key support level is setting up for the EUR/USD.

Here are two levels to watch for this pair as the day progresses:

• Support(1): Bollinger MP, 1.1826
• Support(2): 62% Fibonacci Retracement, 1.1811

Bottom Line: Unti elected, I’ll have buy orders in the EUR/USD queue from above the daily 62% Fibonacci Retracement at 1.1819. With an initial stop loss at 1.1784, this trade produces 35 pips profit on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Shain Vernier

US Analyst

Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.

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