Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Heading Towards $1,860 As US Inflation Looms On The Horizon

During the Tokyo trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is nearing $1,860.00, the crucial level of resistance it must break through to move higher.

Arslan Butt•Tuesday, February 14, 2023•2 min read

During the Tokyo trading session, the price of GOLD (XAU/USD) is nearing $1,860.00, the crucial level of resistance it must break through to move higher. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) giving up its near-term support at 102.80, the precious metal rallied well after feeling buying interest at $1,850.00. There is a strong likelihood that the USD Index will continue to fall as investors’ appetite for risk remains high.

S&P 500 futures have effectively made up for the small losses seen during the Asian trading session. US Treasury yields have not been supported by rising expectations for a surprise increase in inflation. The 10-year US Treasury bond’s delivered alpha has fallen below 3.70%.

Speculations from NBF analysts This month’s headline index increase of 0.5% can almost certainly be attributed to a recovery in the energy sector. We predict that the year-over-year rate will drop from 6.5% to 6.2% if our forecast is accurate. Meanwhile, rent increases may have helped the core index rise by 0.3% over the past month. If this holds true, the rate over a year would drop from 5.6% to 5.4%, a drop of three percentage points.

Even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) went down, the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t change its hawkish stance because inflationary pressures will stay strong for a while.

There will be many more data releases between now and the next policy meeting. Still, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman predicted on Monday that the Fed would continue to hike interest rates.

Gold Technical Outlook

On the chart, the price of GOLD is falling steadily within a bearish channel, which suggests that the target of 1828.70 is likely to be reached. If this level is broken, the bearish wave could extend to $1788.20 in the near term.
The EMA50 supports the bearish wave, and while the price may move sideways for a while, more bad news could push the trade toward the expected targets.
However, it’s worth noting that breaching 1878.80 would halt the current bearish correction and prompt the price to regain the bullish trend. This could lead to a bullish wave, with targets beginning at $1,928.60 and $1,960 in some areas.
Today’s trading range is expected to be between $1,840 support and $1,870 resistance.
In summary, the trend for today is expected to be bearish.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.