Forex Signals Brief July 13: Key US Economic Data and FOMC Speech in Focus
Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar experienced substantial losses against its main competitors following the release of disappointing inflation...
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar experienced substantial losses against its main competitors following the release of disappointing inflation data for June. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, declined by over 1% on a daily basis, plummeting to its lowest point in 15 months. As trading opened on Thursday, the DXY remained under modest bearish pressure while U.S. stock index futures were trading in the green. Investors will be closely watching the upcoming Industrial Production data from Europe and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the U.S. later in the day.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% year-on-year in June, falling short of the 4% rise recorded in May. Both the CPI and the Core CPI witnessed a monthly increase of 0.2%. Despite Federal Reserve policymakers Neel Kashkari and Thomas Barkin expressing concerns about the persistently high inflation, their comments failed to boost demand for the USD. As per the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points in December, following a rate increase in July, has dipped below 20% from 33% prior to the release of the CPI data.
Asian trading hours saw the release of Chinese trade data, which showed that the trade surplus had expanded to $70.62 billion in June from $65.81 billion in May. In the same period, exports and imports witnessed a decline of 12.4% and 6.8% respectively on a yearly basis.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today’s market expectations are centered around several key economic indicators from the U.S. At 12:30, we anticipate the release of Core Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, with a month-on-month projection of 0.2%, maintaining parity with the previous value. The overall PPI for the same period is also forecasted to increase by 0.2%, showing a rebound from the -0.3% dip in the preceding month. Additionally, Unemployment Claims are projected to come in at 251K, slightly higher than the previous 248K.
In New Zealand, all eyes will be on the impact of the bank holiday on the NZD and its transactions.
The day concludes with FOMC Member Waller’s speech at 22:45, which investors will be keenly watching for any cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy direction and potential impact on the USD. With these key data points and events on the horizon, market participants will be navigating their investments cautiously.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday’s forex market saw successful trades with AUD/USD, Gold (long-term), and EUR/USD all hitting their designated take profit targets. Looking ahead to today’s market, we’re currently observing positive performance for several trades.
The EUR/USD sell signal, AUD/USD buy signal, and the Gold long-term sell signal at 1958.9 are all faring well. In addition, our cryptocurrency trades are also looking promising, with ETH/USD buy signal at 1847.61 and BTC/USD buy signal at 30728.45 showing encouraging performance in the positive territory.
Further updates and detailed insights will follow as these trades progress.
GOLD Breaks Above $1,935
The bullish sentiment surrounding gold remains robust amidst a weakening US dollar.
Here’s a suggested trading signal:
Entry Price: 1958.9
Stop Loss: 1972.9
Take Profit: 1950.9
Please note that these levels are designed to help mitigate risk and optimize potential returns. As always, it is important to monitor market conditions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
Cryptocurrency Update
BITCOIN Steady Near $30,300
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, with its price oscillating between approximately $31,000 and $31,500. This comes after a wave of positive market sentiment that triggered a substantial spike in June.
Though BTC/USD momentarily exceeded the $31,500 mark to set a new yearly peak, it struggled to maintain those advances and underwent a pullback.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
However, Bitcoin has successfully maintained its position within the established price range. To manage risk effectively, we present the following trade parameters:
- Entry Price: $30,728.45
- Stop Loss: $29,728.45
- Take Profit: $31,728.45
ETHEREUM Surpasses 50-EMA, Is It a Good Buy?
Ethereum’s technical perspective has been steady since it saw a notable rise in the cryptocurrency market, especially for the ETH/USD pair, surpassing the $1,900 mark. However, the price didn’t hit our set take-profit target and started to retrace its earlier gains.
Following a consolidation phase, the price began to fall, ultimately dropping below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which initially acted as a support level.
Given these developments, it raises the question of whether now is a suitable time to contemplate purchasing Ethereum.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
To effectively manage risk, we provide the following trade details:
- Entry Price: $1,847.61
- Stop Loss: $1,747
- Take Profit: $1,947
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