JSE Top 40 Lifts Despite Rand Slide—Budget, Trade, Youth in Focus

Rand weakens 0.4% to 18.62/USD as investors weigh mixed SA data against global risk aversion. A R24.77bn March trade surplus was offset by a R13.11bn fiscal deficit, raising concerns about debt and spending discipline.

US macro data also applied pressure. A 0.3% Q1 GDP contraction (with sticky inflation) supported the dollar and led to expectations of higher US interest rates. This dollar strength hurt emerging market currencies, including the rand.

JSE Top 40 Nears Breakout as Technical Strength Builds

The JSE Top 40 Index rose 0.30% to 84,356.60 as local equities remain cautious. The index is still respecting the trendline from the April rebound and is approaching the resistance zone at 84,834. A breakout above this level could trigger a bigger rally.

• Immediate Resistance: 84,834

• Breakout Targets: 85,897 and 86,945

• Support Zone: 83,421

• 50 EMA Support: 82,685

• MACD: Flattening, could be a pause before next move

Beginner Strategy Tip: Wait for a close above 84,850 before going long. Place stop-loss below 83,400.

Student Investor Participation Hits Record High

In the midst of market uncertainty, one positive trend is growing youth engagement. The JSE Investment Challenge reached a new high in 2025 with 28,304 student participants – 6,911 school teams and 1,761 university teams – actively managing simulated investment portfolios.

Winners from Eden College Durban and the University of the Western Cape show the growing appetite for financial literacy among South Africa’s youth, a trend that has long-term implications for household investing and capital markets depth.

Budget Clarity Key to Rand Outlook

Now attention turns to Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s revised budget on May 21 after a Constitutional Court ruling halted a VAT hike. The announcement will address debt sustainability, deficit reduction and revenue plans – key to rand stability and investor confidence.Now.