Mexican Peso Kicks Off Week with Losses as Markets Await Fed Decision

The trend remains upward for now, with resistance levels at 19.96, 20.00, and 20.30 still in sight.

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Quick overview

  • The Mexican peso declined against the U.S. dollar, closing at 19.6694 pesos per dollar, a drop of 0.36%.
  • This depreciation was influenced by new tariff-related announcements from U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, with no rate changes expected but close attention on economic outlook signals.
  • The Mexican government introduced measures to stimulate economic growth, while the peso remains in a consolidation phase with upward trends.

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The Mexican peso began the week with a decline against the U.S. dollar. Despite the greenback weakening against most major currencies, the local currency fell, dragged down by new tariff-related headlines.

Tariffs have been the most important driver of prices this year.

The exchange rate closed the session at 19.6694 pesos per dollar. Compared to Friday’s official figure of 19.5985 from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), this represents a depreciation of 7.09 centavos, or 0.36%.

During the day, the dollar traded in a range between a high of 19.6810 and a low of 19.5484 pesos. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the dollar to six major global currencies, dropped 0.23% to 99.80 points.

USD/MXN

Trump, the Fed, and U.S. Developments

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the United States. He offered no further details on this latest move in a series of tariffs and threats targeting multiple sectors, intended to boost U.S. industrial activity.

Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. While no change in interest rates is expected, markets will closely follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the economic outlook.

With few immediate catalysts, markets are expected to remain relatively calm until the Fed’s decision. Though rate adjustments are unlikely, analysts will be looking for any signals pointing to economic slowdown, inflationary pressure, or labor market weakness.

Local and Technical Outlook

On the domestic front, the Mexican government unveiled a set of measures aimed at stimulating economic growth and employment. These include trade controls and limits in sectors like steel and textiles, designed to reduce imports and support local production.

From a technical perspective, the peso remains in a consolidation phase, trading within a range between 19.45 and 19.70. The trend remains upward for now, with resistance levels at 19.96, 20.00, and 20.30 still in sight.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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