Gold Price Analysis: Key Levels to Confirm Breakout or Pullback

Gold is at $3,393 as traders wait for the Fed’s decision today and a possible breakthrough in US-China trade talks. Gold usually shines in uncertain times but recent trade optimism has cooled off some of the safe-haven demand. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s top economic official in Switzerland this week which could ease the economic strain of a trade war that has rattled global markets.

Meanwhile US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will review trade deals over the next two weeks which could change the risk landscape for gold traders. The US and China have been in a tit-for-tat tariff war which has triggered fears of a global slowdown but a thaw in tensions could shift sentiment away from defensive assets like gold.

Fed Meeting Adds Uncertainty for Gold

Today’s FOMC meeting is also weighing on gold. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady in the 4.25-4.50% range where it has been since December. But traders are looking for any hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the timing of future rate cuts. Lower rates generally support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Key factors to watch this week:

• Fed Policy Decision: Steady rates but dovish hints.

• US-China Trade Talks: High level meetings in Switzerland could reduce safe-haven demand.

• Global Growth Fears: Despite trade optimism growth concerns remain a gold supportive factor.

Gold Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold is at $3,393 just above a critical trendline and the 50 period EMA at $3,356. Resistance is at $3,401 with a possible move to $3,432 if this level is broken. But the MACD is showing early signs of a bearish crossover so the momentum may be cooling.

For traders this is a clear risk reward setup:

• Buy above $3,401 → Target: $3,432 | Stop: $3,361

• Sell $3,361 → $3,337 | $3,401

Be patient. Wait for a clean break before entering.