EUR/USD Eyes 1.1335 as GDP and PPI Data Drive Market Expectations

EUR/USD is trading around $1.1196 as traders digest a wave of data from both sides of the Atlantic. Early Thursday releases from the Eurozone were mixed. Germany’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) fell -0.1% vs -0.2% expected, France’s Final CPI was 0.6% vs 0.5% expected. Now we have Eurozone Flash GDP at 0.4% q/q and Industrial Production at 1.9% vs 1.1% prior.

This macro backdrop has kept EUR/USD range bound with the pair unable to break above $1.1266. Traders are cautious ahead of US retail sales and PPI reports which will shape short term dollar direction and Fed policy expectations.

US Data Today to Impact Dollar

The dollar is in focus today with a full slate of data. US Core PPI is expected at 0.3% for April vs -0.1% prior. Core Retail Sales are expected at 0.3% vs 0.5% prior. Headline Retail Sales are expected to flatline at 0.0% after 1.4% gain last month.

Also on the docket: Initial Unemployment Claims (229K), Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. With inflation and labor data in play, markets will reprice the odds of a Fed rate cut this year – a key driver for EUR/USD’s next move.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD near Inflection Zone

Technically, EUR/USD is just above its 50 hour EMA at $1.1187 with the trendline from April highs capping upside at $1.1266. A break above this level would open up $1.1335 followed by $1.1377. But failure to hold above $1.1166 could see the pair retest $1.1119 and $1.1065.

• Key Resistance: $1.1266, $1.1335

• Key Support: $1.1166, $1.1119Until then.