WTI Oil Watch: $61.76 Breakout Amid OPEC+ & Trade Drama

WTI Crude Oil rose on Monday to $61.76 per barrel after US President Donald Trump extended the EU trade deadline to July 9.

Arslan Butt•Monday, May 26, 2025•2 min read

Quick overview

WTI Crude Oil rose to $61.76 per barrel following the extension of the EU trade deadline by US President Trump, easing tariff pressures.
OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July may cap further oil price gains despite the recent bounce.
Technical indicators show WTI is holding at $61.76 with key resistance at $62.66, while recent candlestick patterns suggest market indecision.
Traders are advised to wait for a close above $62.66 for bullish targets or to sell if the price falls below $61.46.

WTI Crude Oil rose on Monday to $61.76 per barrel after US President Donald Trump extended the EU trade deadline to July 9. This took the immediate pressure off US tariffs that could hurt global growth and oil demand.

Tony Sycamore at IG said this sparked a positive move, lifting both crude oil and US equity futures. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked for more time for a deal and the market got some breathing space.

But this optimism is tempered by underlying concerns. Trade and tariff news and fiscal uncertainty will continue to influence crude oil prices this week.

OPEC+ Output Plans and Market Dynamics

Despite the bounce, oil gains were capped by OPEC+ output plans. They could increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July as part of their earlier plan to add 1 million bpd for April to June to offset supply concerns and limit price gains.

US data from Baker Hughes showed rig counts dropped 8 to 465 last week – the lowest since November 2021 – adding support to prices as domestic production faces pressure.

Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank said “any price gains will be capped” as the market digests OPEC+ plans and a “mini oil price war”. Warren Patterson at ING said OPEC+ strategy will keep global markets supplied into 2H.

WTI Crude Oil Chart Signals: Key Levels to Watch

Technically WTI is holding at $61.76, up 0.18% in 24 hours but traders should be cautious. The 2-hour chart shows a bounce off the $61.46 support zone, supported by the 50-period EMA and a rising trendline. Resistance at $62.66 is a hurdle, with the MACD showing a tentative bullish crossover but no momentum.

WTI Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — WTI Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Recent candlesticks – doji and spinning tops – suggest indecision and a possible range-bound market in the short term.

Key levels to watch:

Support Range: $61.46–$60.09, EMA and trendline support.
Resistance: $62.66, $63.81, $64.80.
MACD: Bullish crossover but no follow-through.

For the trader: wait for a close above $62.66 to target $63.81 or higher, or sell if $61.46 fails. Confirmation through MACD and candles is key.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.