Quick overview

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The cryptocurrency market continues to retreat as Thursday draws to a close, caught between macroeconomic caution and technical anticipation, with investors awaiting key developments that could shape its next move.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2.2%, trading around $105,500 on Binance. Ethereum (ETH) also slips, losing 1.9% to $2,623. Most altcoins are in the red as well, with notable declines in Avalanche (-5.2%) and Polkadot (-4.9%).

Trade Policy Turmoil Fuels Market Uncertainty

Earlier in the day, a U.S. court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose broad tariffs without congressional approval, casting doubt on the legality of Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs.

However, later in the session, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the broader tariffs, adding further uncertainty to the economic outlook. This turbulence comes as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting show policymakers remain attentive to the macroeconomic effects of the now-contested tariffs, emphasizing rising uncertainty around growth and inflation.

Key Inflation Data and Option Expiry Loom

The market’s focus now turns to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—a key inflation gauge closely watched by the Fed. Analysts expect a slight cooling, with headline inflation dipping to 2.2% and core inflation falling to 2.5%.

On the technical side, crypto derivatives markets are also in the spotlight. More than 90,000 Bitcoin options contracts—worth an estimated $10 billion—are set to expire on Friday. With the majority of open interest concentrated between $95,000 and $105,000, analysts anticipate heightened volatility as traders aggressively adjust their positions around these critical levels.

Looking Ahead

Despite the recent weakness, underlying fundamentals remain solid. With a healthier technical structure and the potential for more favorable macro conditions, the market could be setting the stage for new highs heading into the summer.

For now, the crypto space navigates a tense environment shaped by monetary caution, political turbulence, and technical pressure, awaiting clearer signals to define its short-term trajectory.