Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hold $104K Ahead of US NFP Data?

Bitcoin’s $104K pivot faces pressure as US NFP and PMI data approach. Key technical levels and market outlook reveal what’s next for BTC.

Written by: Maham Arslan • Sunday, June 1, 2025 • 1 min read

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $104K Bounce or Break—Key Levels & June US Data Impact

Quick overview

Bitcoin’s $104K pivot faces pressure as US NFP and PMI data approach. Key technical levels and market outlook reveal what’s next for BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is cautiously climbing, trading at $104,932, with a 24-hour gain of 0.19%. But the upcoming week’s US economic calendar could stir volatility, especially with June’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and ISM data.

Monday, Jun 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 49.3 vs. 48.7 prior, and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 5:00 pm.
Tuesday, Jun 3: JOLTS Job Openings estimated at 7.19M.
Wednesday, Jun 4: ADP Non-Farm Employment forecast at 110K (up from 62K), and ISM Services PMI at 52.0 vs. 51.6 prior.
Thursday, Jun 5: Unemployment Claims at 232K, slightly down from 240K.
Friday, Jun 6: Average Hourly Earnings m/m at 0.3% vs. 0.2%, Non-Farm Employment at 130K vs. 177K, and Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.2%.

This packed schedule could drive big swings in crypto markets, with traders eyeing macro cues to confirm Bitcoin’s direction.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin Technical Picture: Higher Lows or False Hopes?

BTC/USD has formed a potential higher low near $103,456, supported by a rising trendline from the May lows and the 200-period EMA at $102,752. However, resistance looms at $106,289 (50-period EMA), with stronger hurdles at $106,782, $108,839, and $110,861.

Recent price action shows green candles hinting at recovery, but the MACD remains neutral with a shallow histogram and signal line lagging. A breakout above $106,289 with a Morning Star or Engulfing candle would confirm bullish momentum. Conversely, losing $103,456 could trigger a retest of $100,857 or $98,729.

BTC/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — BTC/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key levels to monitor:

Resistance: $106,289, $106,782, $108,839, $110,861
Support: $103,456, $100,857, $98,729

Trade Setup: Watch Data, Candles & Volume

For novice traders, patience is key. Look for a confirmed breakout above $106,289 backed by volume and bullish candlestick patterns for a potential rally. Or, prepare for a pullback if BTC slips below $103,456. The US economic data ahead adds another layer of risk and opportunity, with traders closely monitoring NFP, Fed remarks, and PMI numbers.

With both macro and technical signals at play, the safest move is to wait for confirmation before jumping in.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Maham Arslan

Crypto News Writer | Blockchain & Web3 Reporter

Maham is a crypto news writer and market analyst specializing in breaking down the latest developments across blockchain, digital assets, and decentralized finance (DeFi). With hands-on experience covering high-impact stories—from regulatory shifts and token launches to macro-driven price movements—she delivers timely, accurate, and SEO-optimized content for fast-growing crypto media platforms. Her expertise lies in producing daily news reports, price predictions, technical summaries, and coverage of market-moving events. Maham tracks real-time updates across global newswires, X (Twitter), and on-chain data to provide actionable insights tailored for retail traders, crypto enthusiasts, and institutional readers. With a strong grasp of crypto fundamentals and Web3 trends, she delivers content that’s informed, accessible, and always on time.