South Africa JSE Top 40 Nears ZAR 87K: Will Bulls Break Out or Pull Back?

JSE Top 40 Index is sitting at 86,550 and I’m feeling like we’re holding back, waiting for the economy to update. Recent price action...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Monday, June 2, 2025 • 1 min read

Quick overview

The JSE Top 40 Index is currently at 86,550, showing a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows supported by the 50 EMA at 86,300.
Warning signs include spinning tops and doji candles indicating hesitation, along with a flattening MACD suggesting losing momentum.
The Rand has strengthened to 17.95 against the Dollar due to global trade tensions and a weaker Dollar, benefiting emerging markets.
Local data releases today include the May Absa PMI and vehicle sales, with expectations of strong growth in vehicle sales indicating an improving South African economy.

JSE Top 40 Index is sitting at 86,550 and I’m feeling like we’re holding back, waiting for the economy to update. Recent price action is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, a textbook sign of a bullish trend. The 50 EMA at 86,300 is supporting this trend.

But warning signs are flashing. Spinning tops and doji candles at the top of the channel are a sign of hesitation. MACD is flattening and the histogram bars are fading – both signs of a losing momentum. If the index breaks below the channel at 86,300 it could go to 85,900 or even 85,600.

Rand Strengthens as Global Uncertainty Rises

The Rand is up 0.2% at 17.95 to the Dollar in early Monday trade. This is a global caution trade as US-China trade tensions and US jobs data weigh on the Dollar. Key factors supporting the Rand are:

Global trade tensions favoring emerging markets
Weaker Dollar reducing pressure on the Rand
Investors hedging ahead of US employment reports

SA 2035 bonds are up 2bps to 10.16% – a sign of steady appetite despite caution.

Local Data Today: PMI and Vehicle Sales

We have two local numbers today. First, the May Absa PMI – a health check on the manufacturing sector – at 09:00. A strong number will be good for the market, a miss will be bad.

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Later at 12:00 we have vehicle sales. Nedbank is expecting 20.4% growth in new vehicle sales from 11.9% in April. This is due to last year’s low base effect, stronger consumer finances and rising demand – a sign of improving SA economy.

Trade Idea: Long or Short on Breakout

Long Setup: Look for a reversal at 86,300, target 87,400 and stop below 85,900.
Short Setup: Break below 86,100 and target 85,900 or 85,600. Stop above 86,550.

Tip: Wait for volume and candle confirmation. Don’t chase.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.