Quick overview

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Oil prices fell in London trading on Thursday after rising sharply yesterday as the United States approved the voluntary departure of military dependents in the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran, which raised concerns about supply disruptions.

Additionally, U.S. progress supported oil prices. Investors are closely monitoring the proposed framework deal in the China trade talks.

Brent oil futures expiring in July decreased 0.4 percent to $69 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.4 percent to $67 per barrel. During Wednesday’s tumultuous trading session, which saw price fluctuations continuing into early Asian hours, both contracts experienced increases of over 4%.

The spike on Wednesday reflects heightened geopolitical risk following Washington’s decision to allow dependents to leave Kuwait and Bahrain due to fears of retaliation. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution were further dashed when President Donald Trump stated he was now “less confident” in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran.

A critical response deadline is approaching this Thursday, and the White House has threatened to consider military action if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense minister warned that if attacked, Tehran would target U.S. bases in the region.

 These developments raised the geopolitical risk premium on crude because investors worry that conflict might disrupt Gulf shipping lanes or oil infrastructure

President Trump informed reporters that a trade framework with China is “done,” pending approval from him and President Xi Jinping. The agreement allows China to export magnets and rare earth minerals, while the U.S. will ensure Chinese students continue to have access.

Trump stated on social media that China will maintain a 10 percent tariff on American goods, and the U.S. administration will keep a total tariff rate of approximately 55 percent on Chinese imports.

Trump also mentioned that he will write to key trading partners in the upcoming weeks, outlining “take it or leave it” tariff offers ahead of a July 9 deadline linked to his halt on broad “liberation day” tariffs.