UBS: Gold will Break a New All- Time High

UBS believes that "gold’s pause bodes well for the next leg higher,"

Quick overview

  • UBS believes that gold's current pause is a positive sign for future price increases, despite recent consolidation since its peak of $3,500.
  • Market reactions to US tariffs and economic data are creating uncertainty around gold as a diversification option.
  • Analysts suggest that liquidity conditions could lead to significant price movements for gold with relatively low trading volume.
  • The bank notes a shift in investor interest towards platinum and palladium, with platinum prices rising and the market becoming increasingly stressed.

UBS believes that “gold’s pause bodes well for the next leg higher,” even though gold prices have consolidated since reaching an all-time high of $3,500 in late April. They also say that “bullish gold sentiment is unchanged.”.

According to a note sent to customers, “market participants have been reacting to volatile developments on US tariffs, economic data prints, and the corresponding implications for Fed policy.”.

The world’s biggest wealth management firm said, “There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the precious metal as an alluring option with portfolio diversification, which is further supported by tariffs, fiscal policy, and the Fed’s subsequent response.

According to the analysts, “liquidity conditions could amplify price action” for gold, which means that “in the current environment, it probably doesn’t take a lot of volume to move the price.”. They note that “inflows into ETFs, sustained purchases from the official sector, and comparatively strong physical investment interest suggest metal being made unavailable to the market.”

The Swiss Bank discussed whether investors moved away from gold and toward white precious metals like palladium and platinum. The bank claims that platinum has continued its upward trend, surpassing both gold and silver, and that the platinum market is “becoming more and more stressed.”.

The bank also highlighted, “It was difficult to know for sure whether market participants are doing ratio trades, but it is also difficult to rule out, given XAU/USD price action.” Meanwhile, futures open interest indicates a decline in gold and an increase in silver and platinum, and “gold’s ratio to silver and platinum moving in favor of the white metals recently.”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Olumide Adesina
Financial Market Writer
Olumide Adesina is a French-born Nigerian financial writer. He tracks the financial markets with over 15 years of working experience in investment trading.

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