Gold Price Jumps to $3,425 as Israel-Iran Tensions Spike and Fed Cut Bets Rise

Gold hit a near 2 month high of $3,425 on Friday as investors fled to safe haven assets as Middle East tensions escalated.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Friday, June 13, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Friday, June 13, 2025

Quick overview

Gold reached a near two-month high of $3,425 as investors sought safe haven assets amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Israel's declaration of a state of emergency and the US military's contingency planning have heightened market volatility.
US economic data, including high jobless claims and slowing producer prices, has shifted expectations for Fed rate cuts, further supporting gold prices.
Technically, gold has broken above key resistance levels, with potential targets set at $3,475 and $3,503 if bullish momentum continues.

Gold hit a near 2 month high of $3,425 on Friday as investors fled to safe haven assets as Middle East tensions escalated. This followed reports of an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and fears of retaliation and wider conflict. Israel has since declared a state of emergency, expecting missile or drone attacks, while the US military has begun contingency planning to evacuate civilians if needed.

“Markets have switched from trade to defence,” noted Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “This has real implications for investor sentiment and is driving demand to gold and other defensive plays.”

The geopolitical narrative is now driving short term market direction and is overshadowing macro trends and favouring safe havens.

US Data Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets

In the midst of rising tensions, US data is also supporting the gold case. Initial jobless claims remained at 8 month highs last week and producer prices slowed more than expected in May. With subdued CPI earlier in the week, this is bringing forward expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Markets now see 55 basis points of rate cuts by year end, with the first cut as early as September. This softer Fed stance weakens the dollar and supports gold which performs well in low rate environments.

Gold Technical Targets $3,475 Next

Gold’s price action has also confirmed the shift in sentiment technically. After breaking above the $3,403 resistance level – now support gold has continued higher, with a bullish candle and rising MACD momentum.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The 50 EMA at $3,376 has turned up and the series of higher lows since June 7 provides structural support and the trendline from late May remains unbroken.

If bulls can break above $3,445 the path is open to $3,475 with $3,503 as an upside extension. But if the price stalls a retest of $3,403 or the 50 day EMA may offer another buying opportunity.

Trade Setup Summary:

Entry: Above $3,445

Stop loss: Below $3,403

Target 1: $3,475

Target 2: $3,503

Risk Level: Medium Defensively.

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Open a FREE Trading Account

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.