Gold Price Outlook: After U.S. Attacks, XAU Eyes $3,450 on Monday, $3,500 This Week

Gold is once again back in the highlights following the United States' surprise strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites over...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Sunday, June 22, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, June 22, 2025

Quick overview

Gold is gaining attention as a safe-haven asset following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leading to increased market volatility.
President Trump hailed the strikes as a military success, while Iran has vowed retaliation, escalating geopolitical tensions.
Gold is poised for a potential gap-up to $3,450, with further targets of $3,500 if bullish momentum continues.
Market movements this week will likely be influenced more by geopolitical developments than by technical indicators.

Gold is once again back in the highlights following the United States’ surprise strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, the global atmosphere has turned deeply risk-averse. As the world braces for a potential escalation, traders and investors are eyeing gold as a haven amid geopolitical chaos.

President Donald Trump called the strikes a “spectacular military success,” while global leaders issued sharp reactions. Iran has vowed retaliation, calling the attack a “grave violation” of international law. The U.N. is urging de-escalation, yet markets are already signaling a heightened demand for safe-haven assets.

Heading into Monday’s open, gold (XAU/USD) is positioned for a potential gap-up, with traders targeting a short-term move to $3,450, and possibly $3,500 later in the week. Such moves are not uncommon in periods of geopolitical shock, especially when the possibility of war and nuclear tensions becomes real. For now, gold appears primed to benefit from panic hedging and safe-haven flows.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Picture: Momentum Builds for Bulls

On the 2-hour chart, gold is attempting to stabilize after bouncing off a key ascending trendline near $3,344. It’s now consolidating just under the 50-period EMA at $3,373, a key technical pivot. A confirmed breakout above this zone could signal bullish continuation.

MACD momentum is turning less negative, and a bullish crossover appears to be forming. If bulls manage to clear $3,374 early Monday, momentum could carry price toward:

Immediate resistance: $3,423
Next target zone: $3,451 – $3,500

This potential rally is supported by gold’s historical behavior during global conflict. The last time Middle East tensions spiked to this level, XAU/USD quickly added $100–$150 within days.

Support levels to watch:

$3,343 (ascending trendline)
$3,319 (structure support)

Resistance levels:

$3,423 (short-term high)
$3,451 (weekly resistance)
$3,500 (psychological barrier)

If gold opens strong above these technical zones, it could attract momentum traders, driving further upside.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Overrides Fundamentals

While technicals provide useful levels, this week’s gold movement will likely be dictated by macro headlines, not chart patterns. The situation between the U.S., Iran, and Israel is evolving rapidly. Iran’s threats to target U.S. bases and the Dimona nuclear reactor, combined with heightened military alerts and airspace closures, create a volatile mix.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

For now, the market is not pricing in peace.

Statements from world leaders from urgent calls for diplomacy to outright condemnation of U.S. action suggest this story is just beginning.

That’s why gold, even if overbought in short bursts, has room to move higher in the near term. If conflict escalates, expect gold to climb rapidly toward $3,500 and beyond. If diplomacy gains traction, gains may cool—but until then, the path of least resistance is upward.

Conclusion:

Gold is entering the week with a powerful blend of technical and geopolitical momentum. With traders laser-focused on Middle East developments, a gap-up toward $3,450 on Monday appears likely. And if tensions persist, the $3,500 milestone could be within reach by week’s end.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.