Quick overview

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Goldman Sachs warned of threats to the world’s energy supply due to concerns about a possible disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that could lead to sharp increases in natural gas and oil

If oil flows through this vital waterway were to be cut in half for a month and maintained at a 10 percent decline for the next 11 months, the bank predicted that Brent crude could reach a brief peak of $110 per barrel.

According to a note, prices would stabilize, with Brent averaging about $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Oil prices surged on Monday to their highest level since January following Washington’s agreement with Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Citing data from Polymarket, Goldman noted that prediction markets currently indicate a 52 percent chance of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, despite the limited liquidity in the market.

Goldman Sachs stated, “Economic incentives, including for the US and China, to try to prevent a sustained and  large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong, even though the events in the Middle East remain fluid.”

Iran’s Press TV said the Supreme National Security Council must ultimately decide whether to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US bombing raids after parliament reportedly supported the action.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicted that European natural gas markets, including the TTF benchmark, would consider a greater likelihood of disruption, with TTF possibly approaching 74 euros per megawatt-hour.