Week Ahead in Gold: Can Bulls Reclaim $3,336 Before NFP Drop?

Gold holds near $3,274 as traders brace for Fed comments and NFP data. A breakout above $3,336 could reverse the trend—until then, bearish b

Written by: Arslan Butt • Sunday, June 29, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, June 29, 2025

Quick overview

Gold holds near $3,274 as traders brace for Fed comments and NFP data. A breakout above $3,336 could reverse the trend—until then, bearish bias stays.

Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week holding just above $3,274, still caught in a falling channel that’s been weighing on price since mid-June. The metal remains capped by the 50-EMA at $3,336, an area that bulls keep trying and failing to break.

In my experience, when we see persistent lower highs and a weakening MACD like this, it usually signals continued downside momentum.

Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Gold Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, gold has repeatedly rejected the channel midline and struggled to flip $3,296 back into support. Unless buyers step in with strong volume and push it past this zone, the bears remain in charge.

Why This Week’s U.S. Data Matters for Gold

We’re heading into a data-heavy week, and gold’s next move could hinge on how these numbers play out. Here’s what traders need to watch:

Tuesday, July 1

Fed Chair Powell speaks (6:30pm PKT): A hawkish tone could trigger a sell-off.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (7:00pm): A strong reading may lift yields.
JOLTS Job Openings: Signs of labor strength could pressure gold further.

Wednesday, July 2

ADP Jobs Report (5:15pm): A surprise beat or miss could drive volatility.

Thursday, July 3

Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment (5:30pm): A weak print might support gold.
ISM Services PMI (7:00pm): A reading above 50 could revive rate hike talk.

In short, any signs that the Fed might stay aggressive on rates could keep gold pinned below resistance.

Key Levels to Watch and Trading Outlook

Immediate Resistance: $3,296 → $3,336 (50-EMA)
Support Zones: $3,245 → $3,209 → $3,166

GOLD

The MACD remains negative, and gold hasn’t shown any convincing signs of a reversal. If the metal stays under the $3,336 level, I’d lean bearish. What I often see in setups like this is that even small rallies turn into selling opportunities, primarily when macro data supports the hawkish Fed narrative.

For any real shift in momentum, bulls need a clean break above $3,336, ideally with strong volume and a clear exit from the descending channel. Until then, this market favors sellers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.