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The lengthy legal battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs has increased hopes that a settlement could occur before the August 15, 2025, deadline for the status report.

 

The core issue of whether XRP is a security under US law has fueled the case, which began in 2020. While legal experts advise caution about being too optimistic, recent developments, such as a June 26 ruling by Judge Analisa Torres, have fueled rumors of a potential settlement.

Public opinion, especially on social media, suggests a 70–90% chance of a settlement by mid-August. Judge Torres’s ruling, which reportedly restricted the SEC’s legal standing, contributes to this optimism. Supporters of XRP argue that the SEC needs to submit a final status report next, potentially paving the way for a resolution.

Marc Fagel, a former SEC attorney, highlighted procedural realities, noting that following a major decision, the agency typically takes 1-2 months to prepare an enforcement recommendation.

SEC commissioners must approve such a recommendation before any dismissal or settlement can be finalized.

Fagel emphasized that the only legally binding commitment is the joint status update due on August 15, and internal deadlines do not necessarily require a quick resolution. Official court filings and public statements would follow if either party chose to settle or dismiss the case. Most importantly, he clarified a common misconception: dismissals.

Holders of XRP are feeling cautiously optimistic amid rumors of a settlement, especially as the altcoin market starts to recover. A settlement that avoids an injunction and includes a $50 million fine could enhance the asset’s regulatory position.

Fagel reaffirmed that there is no guaranteed timeline and that the SEC’s internal procedures will ultimately determine the outcome. “It’s all speculation,” he said, warning the public against relying on rumors and advising patience until confirmed legal updates are available. A settlement would have broader implications beyond Ripple and XRP.

It could influence the SEC’s stance on utility tokens and create a standard for future regulatory classifications. A negotiated resolution might signal a shift toward increased clarity in the cryptocurrency industry, addressing critics’ long-standing complaints about inconsistent enforcement actions. Nonetheless, questions remain about Ripple’s compliance policies and XRP’s legal status.