Quick overview

---

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its forecast that the price of oil would average $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 in 2026. However, it foresees a broader range of risks to its baseline estimates due to recent events.

“Increasing pressure on Russia and Iran-sanctioned oil supply presents an upside risk to our price forecast given the faster-than-expected normalization in spare capacity,” the investment bank stated in a note dated August 3.

Nonetheless, Goldman identified a downside risk to its 2025–2026 average annual demand growth forecast of 800,000 barrels per day because of weak US economic data, the threat of additional secondary tariffs, and the rise in US tariff rates. According to the note, the bank’s economists believe that the weaker data “suggests that the US economy is now growing at a below-potential pace,” which raises the likelihood of a recession in the upcoming year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, decided to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September.

This is the latest in a series of rapid output increases aimed at regaining market share. “We anticipate that the pace of increases in OECD commercial stocks will accelerate and that seasonal demand tailwinds will diminish after September, so even though OPEC+ policy remains flexible,” Goldman stated..