Quick overview

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Citi raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, with the expected trading range increasing from $3,300 to $3,600, up from $3,100 to $3,500.

The bank believes that short-term US growth and inflation concerns have improved, and that the dollar will continue to weaken, leading to a moderate rise in gold prices to new all-time highs.

President Donald Trump imposed high export taxes on goods from several trading partners, including Taiwan, Canada, Brazil, and India. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Sunday’s CBS program “Face the Nation” that the tariffs imposed on various nations are likely to remain rather than be reduced as part of ongoing negotiations.

Markets now price in an 81 percent chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar also declined last week after nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, following a downwardly revised gain of 14,000 in June.

Citi also highlights weaker US labor data in the second quarter of 2025, growing concerns about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and US statistics, and increased geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traditionally seen as a safe-haven investment during political and economic instability, gold tends to thrive in environments with low interest rates. Citi reports that gold demand has grown by more than one-third since mid-2022, and by the second quarter of 2025, prices are expected to double.