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Live XRP/USD Chart

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The prospects for approval of a US XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have been significantly affected by ongoing opposition from Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.

Recent developments showed that, after traders considered Crenshaw’s likely vote against the proposal, the probability of XRP ETF approval, as seen on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, dropped to 65 percent .

This was a sharp decline from earlier highs of up to 90%, marking a sudden shift in market sentiment. Crenshaw’s opinions on cryptocurrency ETFs have become a frequent source of controversy. All 13 crypto ETF proposals reviewed by the SEC this year—with cases involving Ethereum, Bitcoin, and related rule changes—have been rejected by her vote. She remains the only commissioner opposing these proposals, raising questions about the regulatory environment for digital assets. Her influence has partly contributed to a stall in the development of XRP ETFs.

Speculation has also increased due to reports that BlackRock, one of the largest U.S. asset managers, might enter the XRP ETF market. Maxwell Stein, the company’s director of digital assets, will speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 event and could discuss a potential move into XRP-related products.

Crenshaw’s opposition remains a key obstacle despite growing institutional interest.  Her strict regulatory stance is further evidenced by her criticism of SEC guidance on stablecoins and staking procedures [XRP ETFs are still gaining popularity around the world despite these obstacles].

Japanese firm SBI Holdings has applied for an ETF that includes both Bitcoin and XRP, indicating that institutional adoption outside the U.S. is expanding. This global momentum could bolster XRP’s long-term viability as an ETF asset, potentially counteracting delays in the U.S..