Mexican Peso Edges Up Against Dollar Ahead of PCE Inflation Data

The exchange rate closed at 18.6439 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.6596 in the prior session, according to official data.

Quick overview

  • The Mexican peso strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.6439 pesos per dollar.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.33% to 97.87 points following the release of U.S. GDP and jobless claims data.
  • U.S. GDP growth exceeded expectations at 3.3% for the second quarter, while jobless claims showed a decline.
  • Market attention is shifting to the upcoming PCE price index release, which may influence interest rate expectations.

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The Mexican peso strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by weakness in the greenback after the release of U.S. GDP and jobless claims figures.

The exchange rate closed at 18.6439 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.6596 in the prior session, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This represented a gain of 1.57 centavos, or 0.08%.

The dollar traded in a range between a high of 18.6887 and a low of 18.6043. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slipped 0.33% to 97.87 points.

USD/MXN

Focus on U.S. Outlook

U.S. GDP grew 3.3% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, exceeding a preliminary estimate of 3.0%. Another report showed jobless claims fell last week. Traders remain focused on the broader U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, with markets awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at an event in Miami.

Waller is considered one of the top contenders to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when his term ends, making his remarks especially relevant for interest rate expectations.

Rate Cut Bets

Attention now turns to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could shape expectations ahead of the September policy meeting.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, after the central bank has held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% so far this year. Longer-term expectations remain divided.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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