Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit 87% After Grayscale Amends SEC Filing
Cardano ETF approval odds jump 11% in a week to 87%. The likelihood of a U.S.-listed Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF)...
Quick overview
- The approval odds for a U.S.-listed Cardano ETF have surged to 87%, up 11% in a week, following Grayscale's amended filing with the SEC.
- The SEC has delayed its decision on the ETF to October 26, 2025, amidst a record number of 96 crypto ETF applications under review.
- Cardano is gaining market traction, ranking third in Grayscale's weekly top-performing crypto assets, indicating rising investor demand for ADA.
- If approved, the Cardano ETF could attract significant institutional investment and enhance ADA's position in the cryptocurrency market.
Cardano ETF approval odds jump 11% in a week to 87%. The likelihood of a U.S.-listed Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) has risen sharply, with approval odds climbing to 87%, up 11% in a week, according to Polymarket data. The surge comes after Grayscale Investments filed an amended S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 29.
The amended filing builds on Grayscale’s earlier 19b-4 application and outlines plans to list the ETF on NYSE Arca under the ticker GADA. The proposed fund would track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index and hold ADA directly, rather than using derivatives or leverage. Coinbase Custody has been named as custodian, providing institutional-grade asset protection.
This is a rebound for the Cardano ETF, which saw its approval odds drop to 75% in August, down from July’s peak of 89%. The recovery suggests the SEC may finally greenlight the product.
Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit 87% as Grayscale Updates SEC Filing#ADA $ADA #Cardano pic.twitter.com/16F4HyEfcC
— Crypto News Flash (@CryptoNewsFlas3) August 30, 2025
SEC Delays Decision to October
Despite the rising approval odds, the SEC has pushed back its decision to October 26, 2025, extending the initial deadline from late August. The proposal, first filed in February by NYSE Arca, has already gone through multiple amendments and is now open for public comment.
The delay is in line with the SEC’s cautious approach. The agency is reviewing 96 crypto ETFs, the most ever. Still, regulatory signals are pointing to approval momentum.
Notably, the SEC recently clarified that certain staking activities would not be treated as securities, a move seen as a step towards a more friendly crypto environment.
Key points for Cardano ETF:
- Grayscale’s amended S-1 filing with the SEC.
- Extension of the decision deadline to October 26.
- SEC’s record 96 crypto ETF applications.
- Regulatory guidance on staking.
#BREAKING #Cardano ($ADA) Consolidates at $0.83 as Leios Launch and ETF Approval Fuel Long-term #Optimism
ADA price holds steady at $0.83 (+0.33%) despite mixed technical signals, while #Cardano's Leios scaling milestone and 87% ETF approval odds create bullish backdrop.#B…
— Bpay News (@bpaynews) August 30, 2025
Cardano Gains Traction
Beyond the regulatory milestones, Cardano is gaining traction in the market. In Grayscale’s weekly top-performing crypto assets, Cardano was third, behind only XRP and Stellar. This shows investor demand for ADA is rising even as the ETF is still under review.Grayscale ETF analyst James Seyffart said the latest filing is not a new application but part of a broader plan that also includes Polkadot. The fact that Grayscale is persisting shows they are committed to building out a suite of crypto ETFs.
With approval odds at 87% and a deadline in October, the next few weeks are key for Cardano. If approved, the ETF could bring in big institutional money and solidify ADA as one of the top assets in the space.
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