Gold May Hit $5,000, Pushing Bitcoin Price Toward $220K: Goldman Sachs

Gold is still the star of the show in 2025, outperforming both Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Gold futures just hit $3,630...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Thursday, September 4, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, September 4, 2025

Quick overview

Gold continues to outperform Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in 2025, with futures reaching $3,630 per ounce and ETF holdings hitting a record 2,905 tonnes.
Year-to-date, gold has gained 37%, compared to Bitcoin's 22%, driven by macroeconomic factors like rising inflation and tariff uncertainties.
Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $5,000 per ounce if Fed independence is compromised, which could push Bitcoin to $220,000 based on historical correlations.
Increased institutional interest and potential Fed rate cuts may provide the liquidity needed for Bitcoin to close the gap with gold's recent gains.

Gold is still the star of the show in 2025, outperforming both Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Gold futures just hit $3,630 per ounce and total Gold ETF holdings reached a record 2,905 tonnes by the end of August. Year to date, gold is up 37% vs 22% for Bitcoin.

The correlation between physical gold and Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” has been strong over the last 5 years. Analysts say macro uncertainty, including Trump era tariffs and rising inflation has been the driver of gold’s steady climb.

Record Gold ETF holdings: 2,905 tonnes
YTD Gold gains: 37%
BTC gains: 22%

Based on historical BTC-Gold correlations, if Bitcoin catches up to gold’s rally, it could go to $185,000 in the next 200 days—a 70% move from current levels.

Fed Moves and BTC Outlook

Bitcoin’s performance may be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions. Fed rate cut expectations for September have risen with Fed Governor Chris Waller advocating for a 25 bps cut. More liquidity from rate cuts could allow Bitcoin to close the gap with gold’s recent gains.

Macro factors driving BTC:

Rising inflation and tariff uncertainty
More liquidity from rate cuts
Investor rotation from traditional assets to crypto

Institutional attention on Bitcoin plus macro catalysts means BTC is set to go big in the coming months.

Goldman Sachs’ Bold Predictions

Goldman Sachs just outlined scenarios where gold could go to $5,000 if Fed independence is compromised. They said political interference, like Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook could undermine central bank credibility. Analyst Samantha Dart said:

“If Fed independence is damaged, higher inflation, weaker stocks and a dollar decline could push gold to $5,000 per ounce.”

Goldman Sachs’ forecasts:

Baseline gold target: $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026
Tail-risk scenario: $4,500
Maximum upside: $5,000

Using BTC-gold correlations, a $5,000 gold price could take Bitcoin to $220,000—a 250% move from current levels.Watch this space.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.