Mexican Peso Ends Flat Against Dollar Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

In late trading, the peso was consolidating around its 50-day moving average near 18.70, with most volume concentrated around 18.72.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Thursday, September 4, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, September 4, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso closed slightly higher at 18.7194 per dollar, showing a marginal gain of less than 0.01%.
U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, below expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Markets are pricing in a 95.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with more labor data expected this week.
Traders anticipate the peso will range between 18.65 and 18.74 as they await further U.S. labor data and Mexican investment figures.

The Mexican peso closed little changed against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as markets digested the first in a series of key U.S. labor indicators due this week.

The exchange rate finished the session at 18.7194 per dollar, compared with Tuesday’s 18.7204, according to official data from Banco de México (Banxico). The move represented a marginal gain of less than 0.01%. The dollar traded between a high of 18.7813 and a low of 18.6572 during the session.

The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.181 million vacancies for July, below both the 7.380 million expected and the 7.357 million recorded in June. The weaker figure reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.

USD/MXN

The CME FedWatch tool showed markets pricing in a 95.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Additional labor market data, including ADP payrolls on Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, are expected to provide further direction for Fed policy.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, slipped 0.16% to 98.16.

In late trading, the peso was consolidating around its 50-day moving average near 18.70, with most volume concentrated around 18.72. Traders expect an overnight range of 18.65 to 18.74, with attention turning to further U.S. labor data and domestic figures on Mexico’s fixed investment.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.