Quick overview

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Bank of America set a target of $4K and increased its six-year gold forecast. The bank draws attention to the risks to Fed independence. While maintaining short-term calls at $3,356 for 2025 and $3,659 for 2026, Bank of America increased its six-year average gold forecast by 6% to $3,049 as well.

Lead analyst Jason Fairclough increased the price of silver to $38 and warned clients that threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence would increase demand for safe-haven assets.

Fairclough raised the six-year average forecast by 6% to $3,049 and set a short-to-medium target of $4,000, while maintaining BofA’s short-term calls at $3,356 for 2025 and $3,659 for 2026. He increased the silver average to $38, a 7.5-percent increase, and characterized the bank as bullish on gold.

According to Fairclough, gold has seen significant gains this year, up 31% year-to-date, and futures and spot prices were trading in the $3,400 range. According to him, the shift is a result of consistent inflows into bullion and increased physical holdings by central banks. BofA did not alter the tactical allocation for its customers.

Fairclough claimed that persistent fiscal gaps and a structural deficit raise long-term demand for non-yielding assets.

Second, he emphasized how deglobalization and rising input costs can cause inflationary pressures that can maintain bullion’s real price support.

Third, he pointed to President Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook as a trigger for safe-haven gold flows, highlighting perceived threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Fourth, he mentioned that global policy uncertainty and increased geopolitical tensions were contributing factors

Fairclough cited recent events that have impacted Fed governance, such as the controversy surrounding the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook.

Additionally, bullion sees stronger safe-haven flows. In support of his $4,000 short-to-medium target, he pointed out that recent spot and futures trades in the $3,500s indicate increased investor interest. According to Fairclough, threats to the Fed’s independence are a significant factor that will probably cause gold to move closer to the bank’s current $4,000 target.