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Live USD/MXN Chart

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The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar in Monday’s session, with traders awaiting inflation data from both Mexico and the United States later this week, as well as the release of the government’s 2026 budget proposal later in the day.

The exchange rate closed at 18.6587 pesos per dollar, compared with Friday’s official close of 18.7143 from Banco de México (Banxico). This represented a gain of 5.56 centavos, or 0.30%. During the day, the peso traded between a high of 18.7386 and a low of 18.6220. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.32% to 97.46. The peso began the week on a positive note, closely tracking dollar movements and hovering around its 50-day moving average at 18.70, with immediate support seen at 18.60.

Weaker Dollar and the Future of Interest Rates

The dollar continued to lose ground in global markets as investors bet the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at its meeting next week. Recent soft labor market data has strengthened expectations of an easing cycle.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures markets are pricing in an 88.4% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week and a 75.6% chance of another cut in October. With no major economic releases Monday, the peso advanced modestly but stayed within its recent range, as investors awaited U.S. consumer price data due Thursday for clearer signals on the Fed’s path.

2026 Budget Proposal of Mexico

Mexico’s Finance Ministry is expected in the coming days to present its 2026 Budget to Congress. The package will include the government’s revenue bill, proposed spending law, and its General Economic Policy Guidelines, which will serve as a fiscal roadmap.