Quick overview

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Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries might surpass Wall Street projections, according to UBS. The Swiss bank’s analysts increased their forecast to about 475,000 units, or “~8 percent above the Visible Alpha consensus,” in a note to clients.

UBS increased its prediction to 431,000, pointing out that this would represent a 3 percent year-over-year increase and a 24% increase from the previous quarter
UBS maintains a “Sell” rating with a $215 price target, indicating a roughly 50% decline from current levels, despite bullish delivery forecasts.

The company cites a high valuation (forward P/E ~122).
“We typically see the stock reacting to overshoots/misses relative to the headline number, even if the release is in line with investor expectations,” UBS stated.
Strong US deliveries as Tesla continues to grow and consumers take advantage of the $7,500 IRA tax credit for electric vehicles before it expires at the end of September 2025 were highlighted by

UBS. The bank warned that demand is expected to decline sequentially in Q4, adding that the quarter could see “the highest US quarterly deliveries since mid-2023 and possibly the highest on record.”.

Deliveries in the eight major markets in the first two months were up roughly 22% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, suggesting that Europe is also on the rise. Retail deliveries in China climbed by 45% from the previous quarter, and UBS also noted “strong delivery growth” in South Korea and Turkey.

UBS anticipates a roughly 7% increase in deliveries over production, which will lower the second-quarter inventory buildup. In the fourth quarter, the bank only projected 428,000 vehicles, a 14 percent year-over-year decrease from its annual forecast of 1.22 million vehicles for 2025.