Ethereum Rebounds to $4,100 as Whales Accumulate $1.73B Amid Nine-Year Low Exchange Balances
Ethereum has made a big comeback, rising back above $4,100 and gaining more than 2.7% in the last 24 hours. After a rough week that saw ETH
Quick overview
- Ethereum has rebounded above $4,100, gaining over 2.7% in the last 24 hours after a brief dip below $4,000.
- Institutional investors accumulated 431,018 ETH worth $1.73 billion in just three days, indicating confidence in the current market despite volatility.
- Exchange balances have plummeted to 2016 levels, with a 52% drop in ETH on exchanges, suggesting reduced selling pressure and potential for price swings.
- The technical outlook indicates that Ethereum may consolidate between $3,800 and $4,300 before a possible breakout, with strong support expected around $3,700 to $3,800.
Ethereum ETH/USD has made a big comeback, rising back above $4,100 and gaining more than 2.7% in the last 24 hours. After a rough week that saw ETH drop below $4,000 for a short time, this rise arrives. This caused billions of dollars in liquidations and the biggest drop in open interest since early 2024. Even if things have been very unstable lately, institutional buying and historic exchange outflows imply that a potentially bullish long-term scenario is emerging beneath the surface.
Institutional Players Deploy $1.73 Billion in Strategic ETH Accumulation
According to Lookonchain, a blockchain analytics company, sixteen major wallets collected 431,018 ETH worth over $1.73 billion over three days, from September 25 to 27. These big transactions were made through large custodians and exchanges including Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, FalconX, and OKX. These are all institutional-grade platforms that usually serve more experienced traders.
This pattern of accumulation is especially important because of when it happened. These whales came in at just the right time, when prices were under pressure, showing that they were sure of themselves even when the market was down. These purchases, which total over $2 billion in just 72 hours, show that wealthy investors see current prices as good entry positions even though there is uncertainty in the short term.
Exchange Balances Plummet to 2016 Levels as Supply Tightens
The huge drop in the amount of Ethereum owned by exchanges may be the most optimistic structural change for the currency. According to data from Glassnode, the number of ETH on exchanges has dropped from over 31 million to just 14.8 million ETH. This is a shocking 52% drop from 2016 levels and the lowest level in nine years.
This supply drainage is the result of several factors acting together. A lot of this ETH has moved into staking contracts, especially once the first Ethereum staking ETF came out. This gave institutions a controlled way to stake. More coins have gone into cold storage and DeFi systems as long-term holders take coins out of circulation.
According to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain, Ethereum’s 50-day Simple Moving Average netflow plummeted below -40,000 ETH per day between August and September 2025. This was the highest negative reading since February 2023. More than $3.08 billion worth of ETH left exchanges in only the past week. This shows that there is still a lot of buying pressure, even though prices are poor.
The meaning is clear: there are fewer coins accessible on exchanges, which means less immediate selling pressure and maybe bigger price swings when demand picks up, since narrower liquidity can make volatility worse in both directions.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis: $3,700 Emerges as Critical Support Zone
From a technical point of view, Ethereum is still in a consolidation period after falling more than 10% from its recent highs. The asset is now holding the $4,000 mark, which is essential for the mind. It tested as low as $3,845 before rising back above $4,100.
Ted Pillows, a crypto analyst, said that the $3,700 to $3,800 region is a key liquidity zone where big long bets could be forced to sell if the price goes below that level. The liquidity heatmap shows that there is a lot of margin exposure in this area. This means that if the price drops below $3,700, it could cause a chain reaction of forced selling when positions that are too leveraged are closed.
But the recent $1.73 billion whale buildup and ongoing exchange outflows imply that there is a lot of purchasing interest below present prices, which might act as a floor for any subsequent testing of lower prices.
Derivatives Reset and Institutional ETF Flows Paint Mixed Picture
The latest price changes caused one of the biggest resets in Ethereum futures markets since early 2024. Open interest on key exchanges dropped sharply. On September 23, Binance alone saw holdings worth more than $3 billion close, and the next day, positions worth more than $1 billion closed. Bybit lost $1.2 billion in open interest, and OKX lost $580 million.
This vigorous deleveraging is painful for traders who have too much debt, but it gets rid of too much speculation and makes the market healthier for the next possible rise.
Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs saw their biggest weekly outflows so far, with $795.56 million leaving over five trading days. On Thursday and Friday alone, around $500 million left the market. Even though a lot of people are leaving, there is still about $26 billion in Ethereum ETFs, which is 5.37% of the total supply. This is a big institutional footprint that shows how much opportunity and danger these products still pose for price changes.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Consolidation Before Potential Breakout
Looking ahead, it looks like Ethereum will stay in the $3,800 to $4,300 level for the time being. The combination of strong derivatives deleveraging, ETF outflows, and technical resistance suggests that the easiest way forward may be to test support levels again before a breakout can happen.
But the basic arrangement is becoming better and better. With exchange balances at their lowest levels in nine years, institutional buying continuing, and supply continuing to flow into staking and long-term storage, Ethereum’s medium-term outlook seems good. If the support zone between $3,700 and $3,800 stays strong, we could see a retest of $4,500 to $4,800 in the following four to six weeks as supply problems start to affect the market.
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