Bitcoin Bulls Reclaim $114,000: Technical Indicators Point to Potential $120K-$300K Rally
Bitcoin has made a great comeback, rising back above $114,000 with a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours. The rebound is a big change from
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has rebounded above $114,000 with a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours, signaling a shift in market control back to bulls.
- The recent deleveraging has reduced excess leverage, creating a more favorable environment for future price rallies.
- Key resistance levels are identified between $112,000 and $114,000, with potential targets reaching as high as $160,000 based on bullish patterns.
- Upcoming regulatory discussions and economic data are expected to influence Bitcoin's trajectory, with some analysts predicting a long-term price target of $300,000.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has made a great comeback, rising back above $114,000 with a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours. The rebound is a big change from last week’s drop, as bulls take back control of the market as conditions improve and people look forward to several important events that might push BTC prices to new highs.
Bitcoin’s Technical Reset Creates Foundation for Sustainable Growth
The recent price changes show that the market structure is becoming better after last week’s deleveraging period. From September 21 to the weekend, Bitcoin fell 5.3% from $115,600 to $109,500. At the same time, futures open interest fell 6.2% to $39.9 billion. The 30-day correlation between price and open interest dropped to +0.46, which is a bad sign because it means that long positions were cutting back on their exposure instead of short positions driving the price to go down.
This deleveraging process has gotten rid of a lot of extra leverage in the system, which makes it easier for subsequent rallies to happen. The 4.5% recovery in less than 48 hours shows that buying pressure is back, and financing rates have cooled down to neutral levels, which means there is no longer a risk of cascading long squeezes.
The mechanics of the spot market back up the bullish argument even further. The net 30-day exchange flows are still negative at about 170,000 BTC, which means that more coins are leaving centralized exchanges than entering them. This is an indication that holders are becoming more sure of their holdings and that there is less motivation to sell.
Key Resistance Levels and Price Targets
Technical analysts have found a few important levels that will affect Bitcoin’s short-term path. The immediate resistance zone is between $112,000 and $114,000. Liquidation data shows that there are approximately $612 million in ask orders in this range. A clear break above $114,000 would probably lead to a lot of short covering and might push BTC up to $115,000, where there aren’t many orders.
Traders are still wary of the CME gap between $111,300 and $110,900 that hasn’t been filled yet. Bitcoin has a strong tendency to go back to these levels, and every gap since June has been completely filled. This means that a short-term retest of $111,000 is possible before the broader recovery goes higher.
Several analysts predict far greater price objectives in the future. If the price stays above $112,000, it might start a rally toward $120,000. Some predictions go as high as $140,000-$160,000 based on past patterns and the construction of bullish chart structures, such as a possible cup-and-handle breakout in the BTC/gold ratio.
Fundamental Catalysts Align for BTC’s October Breakout
In addition to technical variables, a number of important events this week might give Bitcoin’s rise the boost it needs to keep going. A roundtable hosted by the SEC and CFTC on regulating digital assets is making jurisdictional oversight clearer than ever before. Major financial organizations like the NYSE, Nasdaq, CME Group, JPMorgan, and Bank of America are taking part. More definite regulations usually make institutions more confident and lower risk premiums.
Also, the threat of a US government shutdown could make people less afraid of taking risks in general. With $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending poised to run out, Congress could remove a major source of market anxiety by extending funding through November 21.
This week, labor market statistics will also have an effect on the direction of Bitcoin. The upcoming JOLTS job openings data and Friday’s nonfarm payroll report will affect what people think the Federal Reserve will do and how they feel about risk assets.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Provides Psychological Support
Optimism about a possible US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may be the most important thing keeping prices up. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that speculation regarding revaluing gold reserves to buy Bitcoin is not true. However, some in the market still believe that the government’s budget-neutral plans to build up strategic assets will work.
This story has helped Bitcoin stay over $109,000 even though a lot of people sold their ETFs last week, totaling about $900 million. The psychological effect of possible government accumulation makes prices seem like they can’t go any lower, which lowers the danger of loss in traders’ risk-reward calculations.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path to $150K-$300K
More and more analysts see Bitcoin’s latest drop as a transitory pullback in a bull market that is still going on, not as the end of a cycle. Based on past patterns, Bitcoin usually follows gold’s price rises by three to four months, and Bitcoin regularly makes 5 to 10 times the percentage gains. Gold’s recent 10% breakout might mean that Bitcoin could go up by 50% to 100%, which would mean targets of $160,000 to $220,000.
More aggressive predictions say that Bitcoin tends to more than double its all-time high in gold terms during bull cycles. Some analysts say that $300,000 is “becoming increasingly likely” if historical patterns hold. The BTC/gold ratio has formed a huge cup-and-handle pattern that supports these long-term goals. A measured increase may push Bitcoin toward the equivalent of 160 ounces of gold.
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