Quick overview

Live BTC/USD Chart

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Bitcoin has seen a notable upswing in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising more than 10 percent in the last week, from  $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 today.

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, believes Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs. Kendrick states that the cryptocurrency might benefit from prolonged fiscal uncertainty due to its historical positive correlation with US Treasury term premiums.

He also notes that Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience during extended market stress, which often favors digitally scarce assets. In this case, the ongoing stress source is the US government shutdown.

The prospect of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown can increase market volatility and affect fixed-income and equity securities. These conditions could boost Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against traditional market fluctuations.

Key liquidity indicators suggest a potential breakout, although Bitcoin has recently traded sideways,

Trends in stablecoin supply, global M2 growth, and the gold rally—closely followed by Bitcoin with a 40-day lag—all point upward. Theoretically, Bitcoin could reach $165,000 if the “debasement trade”—investing in assets that reduce fiat currency risk—continues.

JPMorgan analysts also consider Bitcoin undervalued compared to gold. Historical patterns suggest strong potential for significant gains in Q4, supported by increasing institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.