Bitcoin Surges Amid Dollar Weakness, Technical Analysis Points to $150K Target
Bitcoin has broken all records this October, reaching a new all-time high of around $125,700. Traders are calling this month "Uptober" as
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of around $125,700 this October, leading traders to label the month as 'Uptober'.
- The cryptocurrency's market capitalization briefly surpassed $2.5 trillion, marking a significant milestone in its history.
- The current rise in Bitcoin's price coincides with a weak US dollar and increased interest in alternative assets amid political uncertainty.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, contingent on breaking key resistance levels and external economic factors.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has broken all records this October, reaching a new all-time high of around $125,700. Traders are calling this month “Uptober” because the cryptocurrency keeps going up. Bitcoin is currently trading at over $124,000, which is a 1.3% increase over the past 24 hours. This is a big deal because its market capitalization briefly went beyond $2.5 trillion for the first time in cryptocurrency history.
The rise happens at a very important time for global markets, since the US dollar has had its worst year since 1973, down more than 10% so far this year. A lot of people are moving their money into other assets because the dollar is so weak right now.
Both traditional safe havens like gold (which is currently worth about $4,000 per ounce) and risk assets like the S&P 500 (which has gone up more than 40% in six months) are rising at the same time. This is a rare correlation that shows a change in how people expect monetary policy to work.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Accumulation Phase Signals Sustained Momentum
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin’s price movements show a number of optimistic signs that signal the surge has strong support. The successful change of $120,000 from resistance to support is a key psychological threshold that has set the stage for more upward movement.
Onchain measures show that long-term holders are selling less, while short-term investors are starting to stabilize after losing money for a while. This dynamic usually comes before big rallies because it shows a shift from distribution to accumulation. Also, Bitcoin’s open interest “reset sharply” after last week’s options expiration. This might mean less volatility caused by leverage and more natural price discovery in the fourth quarter.
The amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is still going down, which is another reason to be hopeful. This supply squeeze, along with strong institutional demand through US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs that witnessed weekly net inflows of almost $3.24 billion, sets the stage for bigger price swings as buying pressure builds.
Fundamental Catalysts: Government Dysfunction Renews Store-of-Value Narrative
It is not a coincidence that Bitcoin broke out when it did. The US government shutdown last week, the first since 2018, has brought up the topic of Bitcoin’s potential as a decentralized store of value in a time of political turmoil. According to market analysts at Sygnum Bank, this political uncertainty, along with loose liquidity conditions and a service-led acceleration in the business cycle, has made digital assets more appealing to investors looking for alternatives to traditional financial institutions.
In 2024, the correlation coefficient between gold and the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 0.91. This means that the markets are pricing in a new monetary regime. The Federal Reserve is still lowering interest rates, but inflation is rising and the job market is getting weaker. Investors are flocking into scarce assets. Since 2000, the dollar has lost 40% of its buying power. This makes Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins more appealing as a way to protect against inflation.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path to $150,000 by Year-End
Several analysts think that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of 2025, as long as it stays over $120,000. This is based on the present technical and fundamental factors. This goal is around 21% higher than where we are now, which fits with past patterns when accumulation phases came before big rallies.
But there are several key things to keep in mind about this prediction. Resistance levels above $125,000 will need to be broken forcefully in the near future. The size of the rally will rely a lot on what the Federal Reserve decides to do and how the government shutdown is resolved. Some technical situations point to much higher targets of $135,000 or more, but these are still just guesses.
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