Quick overview

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth projection for Argentina from 5.5% to 4.5% and raised its inflation forecast to 28%, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday in Washington.

The report also anticipates a slight slowdown in global growth to 3.2%.. Back in late July, the IMF expected Argentina’s economy to expand 5.5%, meaning the new estimate is one full point lower. Even so, it remains above the market consensus of 3.9% according to the most recent central bank survey (REM).

At that time, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas projected year-end inflation in the 18%–23% range. The revised forecast now jumps to 28%, moving closer to the REM estimate of 29.8%. For 2026, the IMF expects inflation to fall sharply to around 10%.

In line with economic growth, unemployment is expected to improve from 7.5% of the labor force this year to 6.6% next year.

On the external front, the current account deficit is projected at 1.2% of GDP this year, narrowing to 0.4% in 2026.

Global Context: Slower and Uncertain

Globally, the IMF expects growth to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% this year and 3.1% in 2026.

The report describes 2025 as a “fluid and volatile” year, driven largely by shifting policy priorities in the United States and policy adjustments in other economies. Trade tensions dominated headlines, causing constant swings in the global outlook.

“Uncertainty around trade policy remains high in the absence of clear, transparent, and lasting agreements,” the IMF warns. As attention shifts from tariff levels to their impact on prices, investment, and consumption, volatility has increased.

However, the IMF notes that so far, more protectionist trade measures have had only a limited impact on economic activity and prices.